How to End the Wars in Iraq and Syria

In the heart of the Middle East, two civil wars are ongoing that are destabilizing much of the wider region and show no sign of ending.  One of these civil wars is in Iraq, were war has raged since the United States-led invasion of that country in 2003 (and where conflict in one form or another has been in place since the early 1980s when Iraq went to war with Iran).  Since 2003, at least 225,000 people have been killed in Iraq as a result of the constant warfare in the country, with millions of other people having been driven from their homes.  In neighboring Syria, a civil war has raged since early 2011 and it too shows no sign of coming to an end.  So far, the death toll from Syria’s civil war is estimated to be more than 250,000, with an incredible 12 million people having been driven from their homes (two-thirds of Syria’s pre-war population).

What is most troubling about the civil wars in Iraq and Syria is the fact that even with the so-far limited intervention of outside powers such as the United States and Russia, the balance of power in these conflicts has remained such that no side in either of these wars appears to be in a position to achieve a comprehensive victory.  Moreover, the stalemates between both wars’ main protagonists (Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq, the government and Sunni rebels in Syria) has allowed a party opposed by all sides, the radical Islamic State militant group, to seize control of large areas of both countries.  This has resulted in both civil wars evolving into a series of two-way and three-way smaller conflicts within each country, turning both countries into something akin to Somalia (or modern-day Libya).  Moreover, the radicalization of the combatants in Iraq and Syria have resulted in all sides facing a win-or-die situation, making it impossible for a negotiated settlement to be reached for either of these conflicts. 

To bring a stable and lasting peace to Iraq and Syria, two major developments need to take place.  The first of these is a creation of an international coalition that involves many of the leading foreign powers currently involved in one or both of these civil wars.  The first member of this coalition has to be the United States, as it is the only military power from outside of the region that can provide the materiel needed to destroy the Islamic State and to enforce an end to these conflicts.  Moreover, the United States can bring in a number of its allies such as France, Britain and others to help to bring these conflicts to an end.  The second leading member must be Russia, as it possesses sizeable military forces that can be used in ending these conflicts and as it is trusted by the Assad regime in Syria.  Along with Russia, Iran will likely have to be involved in bringing these conflicts to an end as its support for the Shiite-dominated government in Iraq has been crucial in preventing the Islamic State from over-running even more of that country.  Clearly, creating such a coalition will be difficult, given the ideological differences between its proposed members.  However, the presence of the despised Islamic State militant group in both countries should allow for such differences to be overcome, much as the Nazi government in Germany allowed for a disparate coalition between the United States, Britain and the Soviet Union to form in the Second World War.

If such a coalition can be formed, than the international community will have to take an even greater decision.  This involves the dissolution of both Iraq and Syria into a number of independent countries, as it is clear that these states will never be stable and secure as long as rival religious and ethnic groups reside within their borders.  Of course, the international community is loath to redraw borders in this manner, but without this giant step being taken, peace and security will never be maintained in Iraq and Syria (unless one favors the re-creation of brutal dictatorships in these countries).  Once this giant international coalition defeats the Islamic State militant group and enforces an end the civil wars in Iraq and Syria, the process of redrawing the borders of these two states will begin.  First, Iraq needs to be divided into three states, with a Shiite state in the south and the east (with Baghdad as its capital), a Sunni state in the west and a Kurdish state in the north.  Then, Syria needs to be also divided into three states, with a Sunni state created out of much of the country and a smaller Alawite-Christian state created in the northwest.  Moreover, the Sunni states created in Syria and Iraq may choose to merge into a single state at some point.

Obviously, such a plan is fraught with difficulty and danger.  For example, defeating the Islamic State and enforcing peace in these two countries will demand a huge commitment of troops and weaponry and will certainly cost a large number of lives.  Moreover, there will have to be a massive movement of people in both countries similar to those that occurred in central and eastern Europe at the end of the Second World war or during the partition of the Indian sub-continent.  Meanwhile, some countries in the region will be staunchly opposed to this plan, with Turkey vehemently opposing the creation of an independent Kurdistan and Saudi Arabia opposed to any Iranian involvement in such a coalition.  Nevertheless, it is clear that, without such bold steps, the civil wars in Iraq and Syria will continue to drag on, claiming thousands of more lives and further destabilizing an already volatile region.  As such, the international community has no choice but to prepare for the use of force by the United States, Russia and their allies to enforce peace and to redraw the borders of the Middle East.