Europe's Crucial Week

The European Union is entering what is its most critical week in recent decades, with the future of the EU at stake as two major EU member states prepare to hold two very important elections.  The most direct threat to the European Union’s future comes from this week’s referendum in the United Kingdom on whether or not Britain should withdraw from the EU.  However, Spain’s early parliamentary elections that will take place this weekend will also have a significant impact on the future of the European Union and could signal major changes to the political balance of power in the EU.  While the outcomes of these two votes remain uncertain, what is certain is that the European Union is facing a very difficult future, with European voters expressing their distaste for the current political and economic situation in their region.

While the European Union has bounced from crisis to crisis in recent years, nothing is as potentially damaging to the long-term future of the European project than the threat of Britain withdrawing from the EU.  While the polls have shifted in recent days, it continues to look like the result of the referendum will be very close-run affair, with the latest polls showing that there are roughly the same number of would-be voters planning to vote to keep the UK in the European Union as are planning to vote for the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.  Around Europe, political and business leaders have been pleading with British voters to keep Britain in the European Union, as Britain has had one of Europe’s fastest-growing economies in recent years and is the leading recipient of foreign investment in the EU.  Moreover, smaller EU member states fear that a British withdrawal from the European Union will allow Germany to gain a dominant position within that organization, as Britain’s ability to play its traditional role of sustaining an equitable balance of power in Europe will be greatly diminished if it is outside of the EU.  Furthermore, a British vote to leave the EU will lead to Eurosceptic groups calling for similar referendums in other member states, most notably France, where the far-right Front National has already called for a referendum on withdrawing France from the EU.

Overshadowed by the upcoming referendum in Britain, Spain’s upcoming early parliamentary elections will also have a major impact on the future of the European Union.  These elections are taking place just six months after Spain’s most recent parliamentary elections that resulted in a hung parliament that was unable to agree upon the formation of a new coalition government.  Spain’s political landscape has been transformed by two newer political parties, the far-left Podemos and the centrist Ciudadanos parties, and, together with the large number of regional parties in Spain, their rise has resulted in a hopelessly divided parliament.  This time, polls suggest that another hung parliament is likely, as no single party commands more than 30% of the support of Spanish voters and the country’s leading parties are unwilling to work with one another.  Meanwhile, polls suggest that the far-left Podemos party has overtaken the center-left Socialists to become the most popular party on Spain’s political left, making it even more difficult for a coalition government to be formed.  As such, more political gridlock is likely in Madrid, threatening to impede Spain’s economic recovery and potentially accelerating the process of Catalonian independence from Spain.

The election campaigns in Britain and Spain highlight two key trends in Europe that are threatening the future of European integration.  First, the rise of Euroscepticism and nationalism is clearly in place across Europe, exacerbated by Europe’s recent economic struggles and its ongoing migration crisis.  This has led to higher levels of support for anti-EU and nationalist forces on both the political right and left across Europe, with far-right and far-left parties now on top of the polls in a number of EU member states.  The second key trend is the decline in support for the leading center-right and center-left political parties that have dominated European politics since the end of the Second World War.  Across Europe, the number of political parties qualifying for representation in the parliaments of individual countries is on the rise, widening the political spectrum and leading to increasing levels of gridlock.  In fact, European countries with parliamentary systems are finding it very difficult to form stable governments and many countries are being forced to hold repeated early elections as governments are unable to be created or, if they are created, are unable to remain long in power.  As such, the future of European integration is clearly in jeopardy, threatened by both the potential withdrawal of major players and the rising level of political gridlock across the region.