The Threat of Libya as a Failed State

With wars raging in the Middle East and Ukraine, it has been easy to overlook that complex conflict that continues to rage in Libya.  With its myriad of militias and political groups, the situation in Libya remains confusing to outsiders, and thus far, this conflict has had little impact outside of the borders of Libya.  However, the fact that no single militia or political organization is close to winning this conflict indicates that the fighting in Libya is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.  As this conflict drags on, the threat of Libya becoming a failed state will become greater, a development that would have an impact far beyond Libya’s borders. 

The civil war that resulted in the overthrow of long-time dictator Muammar Qaddafi in 2011 raised hopes for a bright future for North Africa’s wealthiest country.  Instead, Libya has descended into even more chaos as the country’s fledgling government struggled to extend its authority outside of the capital Tripoli in the face of strong opposition from militias based in other parts of the country.  Now, the government has lost control of Tripoli to the Misrata-based Islamist Libya Dawn militia group, despite airstrikes on the Islamists by a joint Egyptian-UAE strike force last month.  Meanwhile, the pro-government militia led by former General Khalifa Haftar is losing ground to the Islamist Ansar al-Sharia militant group in the key eastern city of Benghazi, threatening to further divide Libya into different states outside of the government’s control.

There are three possible outcomes of the conflict in Libya.  One is a comeback by pro-government forces that sees the government reverse its recent losses and retake control of most of the country.  However, this possibility seems very remote at present given the recent defeats suffered by pro-government forces in all areas over the country.  In fact, without the major intervention of outside powers, it appears that the Libyan government and its allies have little chance of turning the tide and re-taking control of much of the country.

Another possibility is an Islamist takeover of Libya, with the country’s two main Islamist militias, Libya Dawn and Ansar al-Sharia, either cooperating to form an Islamist-dominated government or agreeing to divide the country into two Islamist states, one based in Tripoli and the other in Benghazi.  However, this outcome remains unlikely due to the deep-seated rivalries between the two main Islamist groups as well as the likelihood that other countries in the Middle East and North Africa, most notably Egypt and Algeria, would not tolerate an Islamist-dominated state on their borders.  

The most likely outcome of this conflict in Libya is the virtual break-up of Libya into smaller fiefdoms dominated by local militias.  This would virtually ensure that the current instability that dominates Libya would continue for the foreseeable future as these fiefdoms battle for control of the country’s resources and strategic locations.  Such a development would certainly lead to Libya falling into the category of being a failed state, as the economic and security situation in such a divided country would deteriorate even further.  In turn, this would lead to increasing amounts of unrest around Libya’s borders and would certainly result in an even greater flood of migrants to southern Europe.  This highlights that threat to Libya’s neighbors of this once wealthy country becoming a modern-day failed state and is a reminder to the rest of the world of the threat posed by the chaos in Libya.