13 September 2017

The Battle for Influence in Central Asia

Throughout its history, Central Asia has been a region over which great powers have battled for influence and control.  The six countries (Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) that comprise this region have long been under the domination of foreign powers, most recently the Soviet Union.  When the Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan and then dissolved a few years later, these six countries found themselves to be independent states, although their unity and stability was fragile at best.  Now, four great powers are vying for influence and control in this giant, but volatile, region.  Two of these states, Russia and China, border Central Asia directly and have played a key role in the region for centuries.  Meanwhile, another great power, India, is seeking to expand its influence in a region that it views as vital to its security.  Finally, the world’s leading power, the United States, has become a major player in the region, most notably through its presence in Afghanistan since 2001. 

Without a doubt, Central Asia is one of the world’s most important flashpoints in the 21st century, as its geographic and demographic characteristics leave it exposed to the imposition of power and influence from outside of the region.  Add to this the region’s significant natural resource wealth and it is clear that Central Asia will continue to be fought over in the years and decades ahead.

Central Asia has always been a region in which foreign powers have sought to expand their influence.  Throughout its history, it has been a region in which trade between the West and the East has passed through, allowing powers that controlled this region to accumulate great wealth thanks to their control of these trade routes.  This also made it an attractive prize for outside powers such as the Persian Empire, Tang-era China and the Mongols, which all sought to control this vast region and control the flow of trade between the West and the East.  Later, Russia expanded south- and west-wards, gradually gaining control over nearly all of what we define today as Central Asia.  Meanwhile, Britain, keen to maintain control of its all-important Indian colony, moved northwards to secure the northern routes into India, thus gaining control of areas now included in Pakistan and Afghanistan. 

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Central Asia found itself divided into six independent countries, each of which faced deep internal ethnic and religious divisions that prevented them from achieving a high degree of stability.  This power vacuum forced the United States to increase its presence in the region, a move that concerned countries such as Russia and China, which consider much of Central Asia to be within their sphere of influence.  As a result, the region has once again emerged as a key flashpoint involving many of the world’s most powerful states.

With six divided and fragile countries comprising the vast territory of modern Central Asia, it is easy to see why great powers are keen on expanding their influence and control in this region.  Today, four great powers and a number of medium-sized powers are seeking to either expand their own presence in this region, or to prevent other powers from dominating the region.  First, Russia retains a great deal of influence in the region, and its armed forces continue to have a sizeable presence in many Central Asian countries.  To the east, China is gaining a great deal of influence in this region, particularly economic influence, as Chinese investment in the region soars and as that country becomes the leading destination for natural resource exports from Central Asia.  The United States also continues to play a major security role in the region, thanks to its significant military presence in Afghanistan.  Finally, India is moving quickly to expand its influence in Central Asia, both in terms of trade and investment and with regards to the region’s security and stability.  While these four great powers battle for influence in Central Asia, medium-sized powers such as Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia are also seeking to expand their economic, defense and cultural ties with the region.

With so much interest in the region, the potential for a clash between two or more great powers in Central Asia should not be underestimated.  For Russia, it views the region as its backyard.  However, with Russian power declining in comparison to the other great powers interested in the region, Moscow knows that it is running out of time to reassert its dominance over the region.  In contrast, China knows that its power and influence will continue to grow in the region and its aim is to assure itself access to Central Asian natural resources, while preventing the region from destabilizing its restless northwestern regions.  In contrast, the United States and India do not seek to dominate this region, but rather, they aim to prevent any other power from dominating it on their own. 

As for the six countries that comprise Central Asia, their goal is to maintain their independence by playing off these rival great powers against one another.  However, the deep divisions within each of these countries provide outside powers with an inroad into their internal affairs, thus adding to the competition within the region.  As a result, while other flashpoints may make the headlines much more often, few hold the potential to be as dangerous for global stability and security as Central Asia.