Five Hotspots to Watch

In recent years, a number of conflicts have erupted, some a re-awakening of unresolved conflicts and others new wars involving newly emerged actors.  As has been the case since the end of the 1940s, most of these active conflicts have been well apart from the world’s leading economic centers, enabling the global economy to expand largely free from political and security constraints.  Now, some of these conflicts (Syria, Iraq and Libya) are taking place uncomfortably close to some of the world’s key economic centers and have the potential to destabilize areas well outside of their borders.  Today, we will look at five potential conflicts that have the potential to destabilize a wider area of the globe, but that have so far either been isolated to a small geographic area or have yet to erupt into a full-scale war.

Algeria: While governments have been toppled in other North African countries (Egypt, Libya and Tunisia) in the wake of the Arab Spring, Algeria’s 77-year-old President Abdelaziz Bouteflika has managed to retain a firm grip on power, despite the fact that his poor health rarely allows him to appear in public.  Nevertheless, tensions are simmering beneath the surface in Algeria, as rival groups position themselves to be in a position to take power when President Bouteflika passes, and as Islamist rebels continue to operate in the mountainous areas of northern Algeria and in the desert wastes in its south.  Moreover, memories are fresh of the Algerian Civil War that raged from 1991 to 2002 and claimed as many as 150,000 lives.  Should the regime collapse and a conflict erupt, the surge in refugees seeking to cross the Mediterranean north to Europe could rise dramatically, while this conflict could merge with the one underway in neighboring Libya.

Kazakhstan: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has raised fears that, once that conflict is decided, Russia could turn its attention to Kazakhstan.  First, Kazakhstan is home to a large Russian minority that lives primarily in areas of the country that are adjacent to Russia itself (as much of the pro-Russian community does in Ukraine).  Second, Russia’s long-time ruler, President Nursultan Nazarbayev, is 74-years-old and he has no obvious successor, creating a potential power vacuum in Kazakhstan.  Finally, Russia is becoming increasingly concerned about China’s growing presence in Central Asia, especially in Kazakhstan, and is keen to re-establish Russian domination of this region.  So far, Kazakhstan’s large Russian minority has avoided stirring up trouble as in Ukraine, but a weakening of the political center in Kazakhstan could open the door for Russia to move into this vast country.

Nigeria: So far, the insurgency by the radical Islamist Boko Haram militant group has been confined to northeastern Nigeria.  However, Boko Haram militants have recently extended their area of operations into neighboring countries such as Chad, Cameroon and Niger and could soon begin carrying out attacks in the economic centers of Nigeria in the southern part of that country.  Meanwhile, the upcoming presidential election in Nigeria is threatening to split the country even further as the southern (and Christian) President Goodluck Jonathan is seeking re-election against the northern (and Muslim) opposition candidate Muhammadu Buhari.  This election has already been delayed once and there are growing fears that the increasing dissatisfaction with Nigeria’s political system could lead to a military coup at some point in the near future.

South and East China Seas: These are the two hotspots that have the greatest potential to disrupt the global economy in the coming years and are the hotspots that could bring the world’s two leading powers, the United States and China, into an open conflict.  2014 was yet another year of escalating tensions between China on one side, and a host of East and Southeast Asian countries on the other, over China’s maritime claims in the South and East China seas.  For China, a slowing economy is forcing Beijing to take a harder line with regards to these disputes, lest it lose support among more nationalist elements in China.  Meanwhile, Japan’s nationalistic Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is seeking to rebuild Japan’s defense capabilities in order to protect its claims in the East China Sea.  To the south, a host of countries are increasingly working together (and with the United States) to offset China’s growing power and its claims to nearly all of the South China Sea.

Venezuela: Once Latin America’s wealthiest country, Venezuela has sunken into a near total economic collapse that has accelerated as a result of the sharp fall in oil prices since mid-2014.  Now, that country’s beleaguered left-wing President Nicolas Maduro is facing a host of challenges that seem well beyond his capabilities to manage.  Furthermore, Venezuela’s right-wing political opposition is growing increasingly emboldened by President Maduro’s loss of support and is clamoring for an end to the 16-year Socialist rule in that country.  Moreover, with Cuba seeking to open ties with the United States, Venezuela is finding itself increasingly isolated in the region.  If the government seeks a full-scale crackdown on the political opposition, a full-scale civil war in Venezuela cannot be ruled out.