13 August 2018

The World's Six Most Dangerous Demographic Threats

Demographics are one of the most influential factors that determine the success of a country or a region and are one of the key shapers of the destiny of humanity as a whole.  Throughout history, demographics have played a defining role in the rise and fall of great powers, while driving major changes in economic and living conditions around the world.  Not long ago, it was assumed that global population growth would continue at a fast pace, stretching the planet’s resources ever-more thinly and leading to a collapse in living standards for many parts of the world. 

In recent decades, the outlook for the planet’s demographics has changed and become much more nuanced.  For some parts of the planet, ceaseless population growth remains a major threat, particularly in regions where this population growth is combined with dwindling natural resources such as water and arable land.  However, other areas now are faced with aging and declining populations, posing entirely new threats to their future well-being.  Altogether, demographics will continue to play a major role in the defining the success or failure of nations and will raise new threats in many areas of the planet.

Here are six demographic issues that will pose a major threat to future security, stability and economic growth: 

  • Exploding populations in Africa and the Middle East: No area of the planet is forecast to record a higher rate of economic growth than a wide swathe of land stretching from West Africa to the Middle East.  This region’s population is forecast to grow from 1.6 billion today to 2.9 billion in 2050.  Countries such as Nigeria, Ethiopia and Tanzania are forecast to see their populations more than double in the coming decades.  Unfortunately, this region suffers from a lack of arable land, water and job creation, while few countries in this region enjoy a high level of political stability.  Together, these factors could contribute to soaring levels of emigration in the years ahead, placing pressure on surrounding regions, most notably Europe.
  • South Asia’s rising population: The population of the countries that comprise South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka) is today a little more than 1.7 billion, making this region already one of the most densely-populated places on earth.  However, by the year 2050, this region will be home to more than 2.2 billion people, an increase of more than 500 million people in just a single generation.  Considering this region’s lack of water and arable land, and the political tensions that persist there, South Asia’s future success and stability is likely to be jeopardized by this rapid population growth.
  • Population decline in developed economies: While many areas of Asia and Africa are experiencing uncontrolled population growth, many areas of Europe and East Asia are beginning to realize sharp declines in their populations as a result of a prolonged period of very low birth rates.  In fact, many areas of eastern and southern Europe, are forecast to see their populations fall by as much as one-third by the year 2050 as birth rates remain low and emigration remains high.  Likewise, wealthier East Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are all forecast to see their populations decline significantly in the coming decades, threatening their future economic success.
  • Aging emerging markets: While many emerging markets continue to experience higher rates of population growth and have relatively youthful populations, some emerging markets have populations that are in decline, with average ages that are well above the global average.  This situation can already be found in many emerging markets in eastern and central Europe and in Latin America.  While developed economies are in a better position to deal with aging populations from a social welfare standpoint, emerging markets are likely to struggle with the fact that a higher percentage of their population is dependent upon a shrinking working-age population.
  • Uncontrolled urbanization: For many areas of the world, urbanization has contributed to the economic success that they have enjoyed as expanding cities have brought together the ideas, financial resources and infrastructure that has allowed for major improvements in economic growth and living standards.  However, modern-day urbanization in poorer areas of the world is posing a major new threat as the scale of the new mega-cities in poorer emerging markets is unlike anything the world has ever seen before.  By the year 2050, cities such as Mumbai, Delhi, Dhaka, Kinshasa, Kolkata, Lagos and Karachi are all forecast to have populations in excess of 30 million.
  • An uncertain future for unskilled workers: As the labor force in the world’s poorest countries grows, and as automation and artificial intelligence eliminate many unskilled professions, the fate of the world’s unskilled workers is increasingly uncertain.  Already, we have seen the political impact of disgruntled unskilled workers who are struggling to find their role in the economy of the 21st century.  Unfortunately, the future looks bleak for unskilled workers, as the agricultural and manufacturing jobs that once were their source of income dwindle as a result of higher levels of productivity and the rapid pace of technological change.

Demographics will undoubtedly continue to shape the destinies of countries and regions for the foreseeable future.  Even as technological progress lessens the impact of demography on a country’s economic or military power, changes in population will remain the underlying strength or weakness (or both) of a country or a region. 

For some countries, a combination of stable population growth and favorable population characteristics will allow for continued economic success and a degree of political stability.  For others, uncontrolled population expansion, internal demographic divisions, or rapidly aging populations, will add to the threats facing such countries, jeopardizing their future success and stability.  As a result, demographic trends will continue to bear watching and will help to shape the destinies of countries around the world.