China's Search for Allies

Unlike other great powers that cultivated alliances and partnerships with other powers in a bid to enhance or protect their political, economic and military power, China has largely refrained from establishing close alliances with other states in recent decades.  Those states that China has had close defense or economic ties with often were smaller countries (North Korea, Pakistan, etc.) that were dependent on China for support against much more powerful rivals.  However, as tensions rise in Asia over China’s rising power and its extensive maritime and territorial claims in the region, China is being forced to find allies as many of its rivals in the region strengthen their alliances with one another (and with external powers) to offset the rise of Chinese power.

When Chinese leaders look at a map of Asia, their see a number of countries, some of them quite powerful in their own right, that are increasingly working together in the fields of defense and economics to defend their positions against China’s growing might.  To the east, China’s access to the open sea is blocked by Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines, three countries with close defense ties to the United States.  To the south, China’s claim to nearly the entirety of the South China Sea has led to countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia and others to expand their cooperation in resisting Chinese claims to these vital waters.  Meanwhile, when China looks west, it sees India, another massive emerging market that shares a volatile and disputed border with China.  Moreover, with India enhancing its defense and economic ties with countries such as the United States, Japan and Australia, China fears that it is being encircled by a series of rival powers bent on thwarting China’s ascension to superpower status.

This perceived encirclement is forcing the Chinese government to look abroad in search of more powerful allies than the subservient states that have served as China’s junior partners in recent decades.  So far, the one state that has emerged as the most interesting potential ally for China is Russia, despite the long history of tense relations between the two powers.  In recent years, China and Russia have significantly expanded their economic and defense ties, with Russian natural resources playing a key role in fueling the Chinese economy and with the armed forces of the two countries working more closely together.  Nevertheless, there are fears in Moscow that this relationship is skewed dramatically in favor of China as Chinese power rises and as Russian power wanes.  Moreover, many Russian decision makers fear Chinese intentions towards Siberia as its resource-rich, people-poor lands are eyed enviously by many in China.

China’s vast economic and military potential is likely to attract other powers to China’s side in the coming years, particularly among countries dissatisfied with the status quo in terms of the balance of power.  For example, other large emerging markets will likely work with China to undermine the continued domination of many facets of the global economy by the world’s developed countries.  Likewise, countries at odds with the United States will view China as an increasingly attractive partner in resisting US leadership in their regions, something we have already seen in countries such as Venezuela and Pakistan.  As China’s power rises, and as other countries react to this rise, the threat of hardening pro- and anti-Chinese alliances will increase, unless China can diffuse tensions with its neighbors and the US can find a way to accommodate the rise of China to superpower status.