2 September 2015

How the Migration Crisis Will Re-Shape Europe

Europe is in the midst of the largest migration crisis in the region since the end of the Second World War, with increasing numbers of economic refugees, asylum seekers and other migrants entering the region from the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia.  For Europe, this surge in migration from outside of the region poses both a major threat to the region’s immediate and long-term future, as well as an opportunity that could provide a spark for the region’s sluggish economy.  How Europe reacts to this influx of migrants, and how these migrants react to their new homes in Europe, will determine whether or not Europe suffers or benefits from these new arrivals. 

Last year, European Union member states, in particular Italy, were shocked by the huge numbers of migrants that risked their lives to cross the Mediterranean Sea to seek a new home in the EU.  Over the course of 2014, there were nearly 630,000 official asylum applications in the European Union, a much higher figure than in previous years.  However, nothing could prepare the European Union for the waves of migrants that have washed up the shores of southern Italy and the eastern Greek isles this year.  Now, more than 800,000 migrants are expected to seek asylum in Germany alone this year, with hundreds of thousands of migrants seeking asylum in other EU member states.  Nowhere is this crisis causing more problems than in those countries where these migrants are first reaching the EU (Greece, Italy and Hungary) and these countries are struggling to cope with the ever-increasing number of migrants on their territory, while the rest of Europe is struggling to come up with a plan to deal with this crisis.

For some, this surge in migration into the European Union is a rare opportunity to bolster the region’s long-term economic growth prospects.  For example, most of the migrants entering the EU in recent months are younger adults seeking better economic prospects for themselves and their families.  Considering the fact that Europe’s working-age population is already in decline and is expected to continue to shrink in the years ahead, this influx of potential workers (and consumers) is an opportunity to bolster the region’s economic future.  Moreover, Europe’s economic growth ceiling has fallen to very low levels in recent years and without an expansion of the region’s domestic market, there is little hope for higher rates of economic growth in Europe.  Likewise, Europe trails the United States and many other large economies when it comes to the creation and development of new businesses and industries.  However, research has shown that young migrants are much more likely to start their own businesses than native-born Europeans, so this wave of migration can also be seen as a potential spur for much-needed entrepreneurship in the EU.

While the potential positive impact of this surge in migration into Europe is clear, it has been the potential negative impact of this migration that has been the focus of much of the media’s coverage of the ongoing crisis.  Certainly, there are many significant risks created by the surge in migrants from what are some of the most dangerous regions in the world.  First, there is a strong likelihood that terrorist groups such as the Islamic State and al-Qaeda are using these waves of migrants to allow their members to infiltrate these large groups of migrants with the aim of carrying out attacks on European targets.  Second, while the German, British and Swedish economies are in need of the labor that these migrants can provide, other European Union member states continue to suffer from very high rates of unemployment and there are few job prospects for these migrants in those countries.  Finally, as most of the migrants entering Europe are from different cultural and religious backgrounds than the bulk of the populations of the countries they are moving to, this is giving rise to significant anti-immigration sentiment that is leading to a surge in support for far-right parties in countries such as Sweden, Austria, Greece and France and this is threatening to sow deep divisions within Europe.

It is clear that Europe needs to welcome those migrants that can bolster the region’s sluggish economy, while ensuring that the influx of migrants into the EU is better controlled so that this influx does not turn into a deluge.  With the political situation in the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia unlikely to improve in the coming years, and with those regions experiencing some of the highest rates of population growth in the world, the potential for much higher levels of migration from these regions into Europe is in place.  Moreover, internal divisions over migration policy in the EU could lead to major political clashes within the EU and could lead to a collapse of the region’s largely-successful efforts to eliminate borders within the European Union.  As such, European Union leaders will have to be much more resolute in managing this crisis as, if dealt with successfully, it could prove to be a much-needed economic boost for an aging region.  However, if it is not dealt with, this crisis could spiral out of control, with millions of migrants seeking to enter an increasingly divided Europe.