10 February 2016

Chinese-Indian Relations

With the exception of the US-Chinese relationship, there is no single bilateral relationship that will play a greater role in shaping the 21st century than that of the relationship between Asia’s two giant emerging markets, China and India.  For the past 65 years, relations between these two giants have often been tense, with the two countries at odds on a number of political and security issues.  Moreover, while the economic relationship between the two countries has been strengthened in recent years, there are also a number of economic issues that divide China and India.  Nevertheless, it is the political and defense relations between these two countries that are fraught with danger given the large number of potential flashpoints that could bring these two massive countries into conflict.

The most dangerous flashpoints between China and India involve the areas of their shared border that are disputed by the two countries.  In fact, it was these border disputes that led to the 1962 war that resulted in China’s humiliation of India’s armed forces that continues too harm bilateral relations to this day.  The most important of these border disputes involves the region Arunachal Pradesh, which was ceded to India by Tibet in 1914.  China does not recognize India’s control of this region and refers to it on official maps as South Tibet and it was here that most of the Sino-Indian War of 1962 was fought.  Another major border dispute between the countries is in the region of Aksai Chin (to the east of Kashmir), which is controlled by China but claimed by India.  In addition, India’s annexation of the region of Sikkim (located between Tibet, Nepal and Bhutan) has not entirely been recognized by China.  Finally, the Indian Ocean is emerging as a region of contention between the two countries, as India views that body of water as within its sphere of influence and is worried about China’s growing naval presence there.

In addition to the border disputes that divide China and India, the two countries have formed alliances that have further raised tensions between them.  For example, China’s economic and defense ties with Pakistan have angered India and raised concerns in New Delhi that China is attempting to encircle India.  Meanwhile, India has begun to abandon its long-held position of neutrality and is beginning to develop more robust defense ties with a number of countries viewed by China as rivals.  This includes the significant strengthening of defense and political ties between India and the United States over the past decade, with the US viewing India as a key counterweight to China’s rising power in Asia.  Likewise, India has also developed much stronger defense and economic ties in recent years with countries such as Japan, Australia and Singapore, each of which is interested in preventing China from becoming the dominant power in Asia.  As a result, there are concerns that alliances are being formed in Asia and that China and India are on opposite sides of this fledgling alliance system.

Despite the fact that China and India are rivals in a number of areas, neither country has an interest in entering into a conflict with the other.  For the time being, both countries’ top priority is to further the development of their respective economies and the expansion of trade and investment ties between them could provide a significant boost to each countries’ economic growth rates in the years ahead.  Nevertheless, India is clearly worried about China’s rising power and its intentions in Central Asia and the Indian Ocean, two regions which India views as within its sphere of influence.  Moreover, the United States, Japan and other powers that are concerned about the rise of China will continue to press India to establish more concrete defense ties with them in order to offset China’s growing economic and military might.  However, history suggests that India will do all that it can to avoid being forced into a solidified alliance against China, due both to its desire to retain its freedom of action as well as the divided nature of India itself.  Given the fluidity of their relationship and their vast power potential, it is clear that future developments in Chinese-Indian relations will go a long way towards determining the balance of power in Asia in the coming years and decades.