Russia's Role in the World

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union almost 25 years ago, Russia has been trying to find its place in the world, struggling to reclaim its status as a leading power.  In the 1990s, the fall of the Soviet Union left the United States as the world’s sole superpower as Russia’s military and economic power fell to just a fraction of that of the US.  In the 2000s, Russian power slowly began to rise thanks to the re-centralization of power in Russia and high natural resource prices, but these gains were dramatically overshadowed by the rise of China to superpower status.  Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin is focusing on restoring Russia to great power status by attempting to re-assert Russian domination of its near-abroad and by restoring Russian influence in certain areas of the world where Russia believes that it can continue to play a major role.  Nevertheless, these efforts are jeopardized by a series of limiting factors that will hamper Russia’s efforts to return to great power status, both today and over the long-term.

President Putin has based his presidency on reclaiming much of the power and glory that Russia lost when the Soviet Union collapsed, an event he has described as a tragedy.  Today, President Putin is attempting to roll back many of the losses in power and influence that Russia suffered in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, while attempting to show the people of Russia, as well as the rest of the world, that Russia remains a major global power.  The focus of this revival is on Russia’s attempt to regain the dominant position in its near-abroad by returning the other 14 countries of the former Soviet Union to Moscow’s orbit.  Already, we have seen Russia intervene in conflicts in Georgia and Ukraine, and Russia maintains a great deal of influence over the former Soviet Central Asia and well as the South Caucasus region.  While its efforts to dominate its near-abroad are a work-in-progress, President Putin has already taken steps to restore Russian influence further abroad, most notably through Russia’s intervention in the civil war in Syria.  This was done both to prop up Russia’s only ally in the Middle East (the Assad regime) and to show to the world that Russia’s power projection capabilities were being restored.

A number of factors will influence Russia’s ability to return to great power status in the coming years.  First and foremost, Russia’s control of such a large area of the Eurasian landmass means that Russia will remain a major player in both Europe and Asia.  However, the former Soviet Union controlled a much greater share of this region, due in large part to the collapse of European power during the two World Wars and China’s isolation and backwardness until the 1980s.  Now, Russia’s control of the land and resources of Siberia and much of Eastern Europe is the key to its power, as many other aspects of Russian power have been in decline for many decades.  For example, Russia’s population today is just half of that of what the Soviet Union’s was, as Russia’s current demographic situation is dire due to the country’s population decline and the ethnic and religious diversification of Russia’s population.  Meanwhile, Russia’s economic power is now based almost entirely on natural resource exports, leaving Russia vulnerable to downturns in natural resource prices, as has been the case in recent years.  Finally, while Russian power has waned, that of the United States and China has continued to rise, allowing both countries to pull away from Russia in terms of economic and political power in recent years.

While Russia is clearly not in a position to reclaim its status as a superpower, President Putin has seized a rare opportunity to at least stake a claim for Russia as a major power on the global stage.  This opportunity has presented itself due to the fact that the United States has turned its focus away from Eurasia in order to focus on the rising power of China in Asia.  Moreover, while China has undoubtedly overtaken Russia as a leading global power, its power projection capabilities remain limited, allowing Russia to involve itself in a number of regions where both countries have strategic interests.  Despite President Putin’s opportunism, he is undoubtedly aware that, without major economic and demographic changes, Russian power will remain limited.  However, he has thus far failed to take the steps needed to diversify the Russian economy, leaving it dependent upon natural resources.  Moreover, his efforts to reverse Russia’s demographic decline have only started to bear fruit and are unlikely to play a major role in restoring Russian power.  As a result, President Putin is likely to continue to attempt to restore Russian domination of its near-abroad and its influence further abroad, as the global balance of power will continue to turn against Russia in the years and decades ahead.