The Importance of the South China Sea Dispute
The South China Sea has become one of the world’s most contested bodies of water in recent years and, with tensions rising across that region, the potential for a conflict in and around the sea has risen significantly. Much of this rising danger can be attributed to China’s growing assertiveness in staking its claim to the bulk of the waters of the South China Sea and its willingness to defend its claims there. Moreover, this flashpoint involves not only China and many of Southeast Asia’s leading powers, but also the United States, the country that has used its naval power in the western Pacific to protect and keep open that region’s vital shipping lanes. Now, with China publically asserting its claim to most of the sea, and with the United States being called on to support its allies in the region, the world’s two leading powers are in a position where neither can back down without a major loss in prestige. Therefore, it is little wonder that the South China Sea is considered by many to be the single most dangerous flashpoint in the world.
The bulk of the tensions in the South China Sea are centered on China’s extensive claims to its waters and the islands chains found in that body of water (and perhaps its potential oil and gas reserves). In fact, China claims 90% of the South China Sea, including areas of the sea that are nearly 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles) from the southern coast of mainland China. These claims are based on a 1947 map in which China marked its claim to the South China Sea (and the Paracel and Spratly island chains) by using a nine-dash line to demarcate its claim. In fact, this nine-dash line on this map includes waters, islands and islets that are just off of the shores of the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam. In recent years, China has dramatically stepped up its efforts to reinforce its claims to these waters by building bases on a number of disputed islands in the South China Sea and by expanding the territory of small islets, sometimes even building up these islets so that they are above sea-level. For China, control of the South China Sea is vital as it is home to many of China’s most important shipping lanes, including those that bring oil and gas supplies from the Middle East. Moreover, China hopes that by controlling the South China Sea, it can prevent the islands that surround it from being used to block its access to the Pacific and Indian oceans.
Of course, a host of other countries have claims to the South China Sea that overlap those of China’s claim to most of the sea. Sometimes, these countries have worked together to combat China’s efforts to control most of the sea, but other times, these countries have claims that overlap with one another. In the western South China Sea, Vietnam claims an extensive area of the sea, including all of the Paracel and Spratly islands, the former that are currently under the control of China and the latter which host bases from a number of countries, including China. In the eastern and central South China Sea, most of the waters and islands are claimed by the Philippines, which recently filed and won an arbitration case against China over their competing claims in the sea. In the southern South China Sea, claims by Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei all overlap with those of China, and there have been clashes with Chinese fishing vessels in these waters in recent months. Finally, the United States maintains a near-constant naval presence in and around the South China Sea and has carried out a series of naval exercises in recent years in waters and around islands claimed and occupied by China. Altogether, China’s claims to the bulk of the South China Sea are being contested by a number of countries; these rival claims have done little to stop China’s consolidation of its control of this vital body of water.
The fact that the South China Sea has become one of the world’s most economically important bodies of water has significantly raised the stakes in this many-sided maritime dispute. Today, the countries bordering the South China Sea account for nearly 20% of global economic output, a figure that is forecast to rise significantly in the years ahead. Moreover, more than $5.3 trillion worth of trade passes through the South China Sea each year, making it perhaps the most vital body of water for the global economy in the 21st century. Add to this the fact that this is one area where the armed forces of the United States and China are most likely to come into contact and it is clear that no flashpoint in the world has the greater potential to lead to a new world war than the South China Sea. In fact, given that China shows no signs of compromising on this issue, and that the United States feels that it cannot be seen as letting down its allies in the region, the potential for a US-Chinese clash in the South China Sea is likely to rise in the coming years. As such, the scale of the threat posed by the South China Sea dispute makes all other global flashpoints look like sideshows.