Election Season in Europe

While the world’s attention has been on the dramatic battle for the presidency of the United States later this year, a number of important elections are taking place in Europe in the coming months as well.  Over the remaining four-and-a-half months until the end of 2016, no less than 16 (and perhaps more) European countries will hold national elections of one type or another.  These elections are taking place in both larger countries such as Russia and Italy, as well as in a host of smaller European countries.  Furthermore, Spain may find itself holding its third parliamentary election in less than a year if, as expected, that country’s leading political parties are unable to form a new coalition government following two inconclusive elections.  What is certain is that, in the wake of the British referendum on leaving the European Union and the rising tensions between Russia and the West, a number of the upcoming elections in Europe could play a significant role in determining the region’s political future.

In September, the election to watch will take place in Russia, where parliamentary elections will take place.  While there is little doubt that President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia will dominate these elections, its support levels have fallen in the wake of Russia’s recent recession.  Moreover, nationalism will play a massive role in these elections given the deterioration in relations between Russia and the West in recent years.  Elsewhere, there will be two other national elections in Europe next month.  First, farcical parliamentary elections will take place in Belarus, as independent candidates that support President Alexander Lukashenko are expected to win nearly all of the seats in the parliament, despite that country’s deep recession.  Second, early parliamentary elections will take place in Croatia, after the government of the technocratic Prime Minister Tihomir Oreskovic was brought down after less than eight months in power by the very party that put it in power in the first place.

In October, at least seven national elections will take place in Europe and this will provide a barometer for the political mood across much of the region.  Two key votes will take place in the first weekend of that month.  In Austria, the second round of voting will take place in that country’s presidential election after the first attempt at holding this vote was annulled by Austria’s constitution court due to widespread irregularities.  As such, Austria could be on the verge of electing a far-right candidate, Norbert Hofer, as its president.  That same day, Hungarian voters will go to the polls to decide on whether or not to accept European Union mandatory quotas for relocating migrants and refugees, with a vast majority of Hungarian voters expected to reject these quotas.  Also in October, the Czech Republic, Georgia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Iceland and Moldova will all hold some form of national elections, making this one of the busiest months for elections in Europe in many years.

While the number of national elections in Europe will fall in November and December, these are no less important months when it comes to deciding the political direction of many European countries.  For example, Italy is expected to hold its referendum on constitutional changes proposed by the reform-minded Prime Minister Matteo Renzi in early November.  If these changes are rejected by Italian voters, Prime Minister Renzi has vowed to resign and this could shake up Italian politics while leading to an economic crisis in that country.  Elsewhere in late 2016, the focus will be on southeastern Europe, with national elections taking place in Bulgaria (presidential), Romania (parliamentary) and Macedonia (parliamentary).  Of course, Spain may yet hold a third parliamentary election in less than a year in late 2016 as well.  Altogether, Europe’s political climate is likely to change in the months ahead, paving the way for crucial national elections in Germany and France in 2017, elections that will play a huge role in deciding Europe’s uncertain political future.