How to Deal with North Korea
North Korea’s latest test of a nuclear weapon, its fifth such test (and its largest), has ignited fears across East Asia and further abroad that North Korea’s more aggressive behavior in recent months could destabilize an already unsettled region. Coming on the heels of a series of recent missile tests, those international powers with a major stake in the stability of the Korean Peninsula (China, South Korea, Japan and the United States) are worried that this string of tests could be a sign that North Korea’s viability as a state is in jeopardy, potentially leading to a conflict on the Korean Peninsula and possibly the complete collapse of North Korea. Moreover, all states with a stake in the region, including North Korea’s erstwhile ally China, are disturbed by North Korea’s behavior under the leadership of Kim Jong-un. So far, nothing that these powers have done has had any noticeable impact on North Korea’s behavior, suggesting that, this time, the international community must take a much harder line with Pyongyang.
While much remains a mystery regarding North Korea’s latest nuclear test, it appears that this test was the country’s largest yet, as a magnitude 5.3 earthquake was detected at North Korea’s nuclear test site at Punggye-ri at the time of the underground explosion. Moreover, satellite images taken in recent days of the Punggye-ri site indicate that North Korea may carry out another nuclear test in the near future, despite total opposition to its latest test from the international community. Just as unnerving as this nuclear test is the fact that North Korea has also being carrying out tests on a series of increasingly advanced missiles in recent months, missiles that are capable of striking targets across Asia and potentially the United States.
These nuclear and missile tests are taking place at a time when the relatively young Kim Jong-un has been moving to consolidate his power in North Korea by removing many powerful figures from North Korea’s government and armed forces. Furthermore, these tests are likely to lead to more hardships for North Korea’s already beleaguered economy at a time when an increasing number of North Koreans are aware how far behind they are economically compared to their neighbors in South Korea or China.
As expected, the three countries considered by Pyongyang to be the mortal enemies of North Korea (the United States, South Korea and Japan) were the first countries to condemn this latest nuclear test. Each of these three countries has already indicated that they are considering the imposition of a new round of economic sanctions against North Korea, with such sanctions likely to be put in place in the near-future. Moreover, this test is all-but-certain to increase the already considerable defense ties between the United States, South Korea and Japan, as evidenced by the recent missile defense deal between the US and South Korea.
Of course, this game of North Korean testing and international sanctions has been played before, and while it has sometimes had a short-term impact on Pyongyang’s behavior, it has done nothing to prevent North Korea from working towards its long-term goal of assembling a large nuclear and long-range missile arsenal. This is due in large part to the fact that North Korea has always had an ally on its northern border, first in the form of the Soviet Union and, more recently, in the form of China.
Today, it is China that holds the key to North Korea’s ability to continue to thumb its nose at the international community and continue expanding its nuclear and missile arsenal. In the past, China protected North Korea from the impact of international sanctions by providing an economic lifeline for North Korea by allowing for trade between the two countries to continue across the Yalu River that separates them. However, North Korea’s most recent nuclear and missile tests have clearly angered Beijing as China’s interests in the Korean Peninsula have changed. First, current Chinese President Xi Jinping and his South Korean counterpart, Park Geun-hye, have developed a strong bi-lateral relationship, enabling their two countries to work more closely together of late. Second, China has no desire to see North Korea collapse, fearful that such a development would lead to millions of refugees flowing into China and to US armed forces being stationed on the southern bank of the Yalu River. Now, as North Korea’s last international partner, China holds the key to North Korea’s stability.
Should China impose stricter economic sanctions on North Korea, than that country’s economy would all but collapse. However, the recent decision to deploy the US’ THAAD missile defense shield in South Korea has clearly angered Beijing and could result in Beijing resisting the efforts of others to add to the pressure on North Korea. As such, North Korea may well be able to continue to play the same dangerous nuclear game that it has for the past decade.