The Danger of US Isolationism
For the past century, the United States has been the dominant player in global affairs and it has used its dominant position to enforce a liberal political and economic order on much of the world. After its entry in the First World War turned the tied against the Axis powers, the United States emerged as the world’s economic powerhouse. In the Second World War, the United States, together with its Soviet, British and other allies, ended the imperial ambitions of Germany and Japan, allowing a liberal and capitalist order to dominate much of Europe and Asia. Finally, the US’ “victory” in the Cold War resulted in much of the rest of the world being integrated into a US-led economic, trade and investment system that brought unprecedented growth to many formerly isolated areas of the world. While the United States has made many mistakes in its position of global leadership, its role as the primary enforcer of peace in Europe and Asia, and its protection of the world’s leading trade routes, resulted in decades of remarkable growth in terms of economic output as well as international trade and investment.
Prior to its ascendancy to the top of the global power table during the Second World War, much of the United States’ history was dominated by a desire to remain isolated from the problems of the rest of the world. While defending its role as the dominant power in the Western Hemisphere for the past 200 years, the US had largely remained aloof from problems further afield and even when it was dragged into far-away conflicts, as during the First World War, it quickly retreated back into isolationism. For many, this isolationism allowed the United States to concentrate on the development, modernization and expansion of the US economy, something that resulted in the US becoming the world’s dominant economy many decades before it became the world’s leading political and military power. This nostalgia for a bygone era when the United States was effectively shielded by two vast oceans from the rest of the world’s problems is a key component of the renewed desire by many US voters to have the country return to a sort of 21st century isolationism. This is evident by the surprisingly strong support for this year’s Republican candidate for the US presidency, Donald Trump, who’s call for a massive wall along the Mexican border and a withdrawal from the US’ defense commitments to many of its overseas allies harkens back to the heady days of US isolationism in the 19th century or the 1920s.
Polls taken in recent years have shown that there is a clear trend towards more support for a lesser role for the United States in global affairs among US voters. The endless wars in the Middle East and Central Asia, coupled with what many people in the United States see as the negative impact of the US’ trade and investment partnerships with foreign countries, have led to greater support for politicians such as Donald Trump that call for the US to focus on internal affairs, rather than on issues and threats overseas. Already, many of the recent trade deals that the United States has been at the forefront of, such as the TPP (with the Pacific Rim) and the TTIP (with the European Union), not to mention the 22-year-old NAFTA trade deal, are in jeopardy as an increasing number of voters in the US are opposed to many aspects of these deals and blame them for the loss of manufacturing jobs in the US. Moreover, the United States’ extensive military commitments in all regions of the world are also being questioned, as more and more areas of the world grow increasingly unstable. Altogether, political, security and economic trends are combining to convince many US voters that their country should turn inward, regardless of the implications.
Unfortunately for the United States and the rest of the world, the US remains the indispensible country when it comes to maintaining the liberal trade and investment order that dominates the world economy, as well as the military alliances that have preserved peace in Europe and Asia in recent decades. On the economic front, a turn towards isolationism in the world’s largest economy would lead to many of the world’s other leading economic powers also turning towards protectionism. This would cause massive disruptions to global trade and investment and lead to the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression. On the political and security front, a collapse of US-led defense alliances in Europe and Asia would encourage revisionist powers such as Russia and China to use force to defend their territorial claims in the former Soviet Union (for Russia) and in the waters of the western Pacific Ocean (for China). Moreover, no single power would be in a position to take the United States’ place as the power guaranteeing trade, investment and security in the key economic centers of the world, leading to significantly higher levels of conflict risk around the world. As such, a turn towards isolationism in the United States would worsen, rather than enhance, the prospects for security and economic growth in the US and around the world, making the US and the world a much more dangerous place.