The US Election With Four Months to Go

Just when most observers thought that the world’s most-anticipated presidential election could not become any more unpredictable, the events of the past few days have shown that the 2016 presidential election in the United States is unlike any other in the history of the world’s most powerful country.  This election clearly has the attention of voters in the United States, as the television ratings for the first two presidential debates have shattered viewership records, while almost no one in the US does not have an opinion on this election.  Moreover, the entire world appears to be transfixed by the recent developments in the United States, and many people outside of the US are worried about the future of democracy in the very country that has led efforts to promote democracy around the world.  Now, with just four weeks to go in what seems to have been an election campaign without end, there is still the possibility of some major twists and turns that could turn this election on its head.

Undoubtedly, the 2016 presidential election campaign in the United States has proven to be the crudest and dirtiest national campaign in modern US history.  On one hand, the front-runner in this election, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, continues to be under pressure from a series of scandals, both her own as well as some dating back to her husband’s time in the White House in the 1990s.  In a normal year, these scandals might have proven to be quite damaging to Clinton’s bid for the presidency, but this year has been anything but a normal year in US politics.  That is due to the fact that the Republican candidate for the presidency, Donald Trump, has found himself facing intense pressure stemming from a long series of crude comments he has made, particularly towards women and minority groups, since he has been in the public eye.  In fact, Trump’s scandals have taken this campaign to depths never seen before in a US presidential election, even when one considers the scandals that have faced previous presidential candidates in the US.  While these scandals have had little impact on the level of support from Trump’s hardline backers, they are likely to make it even harder for him to win over the more moderate voters that he will need in order to close the gap with his Democratic rival.

So far, few polls have been released since these latest scandals broke, but there had already been a clear trend towards more support for Clinton in recent weeks, after Trump had nearly closed the gap with her in early September.  Nationally, Clinton now holds a lead of between 4% and 5% over Trump, and this gap has grown in the most-recent polls.  More importantly, Clinton has extended her lead in swing states in which she has long been ahead (such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Colorado and Wisconsin).  Should she hold on to these swing states, Clinton will already have 260 of the 270 Electoral College votes she needs to win the presidency.  As a result, Trump will have to not only hold on to those swing states in which he holds just a narrow lead in recent polls (Arizona and Iowa), but he will have to win nearly all of the other swing states in which Clinton holds a narrow lead in the polls (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Nevada).  If he loses one of the first three of those swing states, his hopes for the presidency are over.  Moreover, if he loses any traditionally-Republican states in which the polls show a tightening race, his hopes for winning the White House will also be dashed.

Even without the most recent scandals, Donald Trump’s bid to win the most powerful political office in the world were fading.  Now, his efforts to win support from more of the moderate voters that he needs to capture many of the key swing states in the US will be all the more difficult as these latest scandals have damaged his position among women voters and have cost him the support of many leading members of his own party.  Nevertheless, the race is close enough that Clinton cannot assume that she has the election in the bag.  For example, Trump’s better-than-expected performance in the second presidential debate helped to stem the bleeding from a weekend dominated by the furor over his crude comments towards women that he made back in 2005.  Moreover, the potential for a surprise development (such as a new corruption scandal involving Clinton or a major terrorist attack) could yet provide Trump with a new boost in support.  Regardless, it is clear that time is running out on the populist Republican candidate and his latest series of gaffes make it even more unlikely that his bid for the White House will prove successful.