Southeast Asia: The 21st Century's Leading Flashpoint
With a population of 660 million and one of the world’s most strategically-important locations, Southeast Asia is one of the most pivotal regions in shaping the global economy and the international security environment in the 21st century. Interestingly, this is a region that has, for nearly all of its history, never been dominated by a single power for a prolonged-period of time. Of course, India and China have had a great deal of influence over the region at various points in history, as did Japan for a few years during the Second World War.
However, the region is today comprised of ten very distinct countries, many of which have their own deep internal divisions. Now, Southeast Asia is emerging as one of the leading centers of growth for the global economy and this is resulting in an increased focus on this region by traditional outside powers such as China and India, as well as by newer outside powers such as the United States.
In recent years, the United States has played a much greater role in this region after decades of relatively low-level ties between the world’s leading power and most of the countries that comprise Southeast Asia. This was due in large part to the fallout from the Vietnam War that saw US aims for the region offset by the spread of communism in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. For most Southeast Asian countries, the modern-day US-led trade, investment and maritime security arrangements have provided the environment needed to help the region to develop export-driven industries that drive some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.
Furthermore, the United States provides the region with an alternative, and a form of protection, against potential Chinese economic and political domination. This has led to a strengthening of ties between the United States and many of its traditional allies in the region, while helping to promote closer ties with former rivals such as Indonesia, Vietnam and Myanmar. Finally, the US’ recent pivot towards Asia is likely to continue as the Pacific region has emerged as the world’s most important economic and political region, replacing the North Atlantic in this role.
For China, Southeast Asia is often viewed as a region that is entirely within China’s sphere of influence and many Chinese leaders believe that this entitles their country to play the leading role in this region. However, this assumption has led China to take a hard line towards defending and reinforcing its claims to the vast majority of the South China Sea, a body of water in which five Southeast Asian countries also have maritime claims. This Chinese assertiveness, together with China’s rising economic power, has led many Southeast Asian countries to determine that it is not in their best interest to allow China to dominate the region. Thus, many countries in the region are looking to outside powers such as the US, India or Japan to play a greater role in Southeast Asia. This is a key reason why Myanmar has moved quickly to expand its political and security ties with these outside powers at the expense of its once close ties with China.
On the other hand, China is finding new potential allies in the region, especially two countries that once had very close ties with the United States. First, Thailand’s military-led government has been criticized by the US and others for not restoring that country’s democracy, and this has led Bangkok to cultivate closer ties with China. Meanwhile, the Philippines’ controversial new President Rodrigo Duterte has called for a major shift in his country’s foreign policy, aiming to improve ties with Beijing even if this further damages his country’s long-standing ties with the United States.
Southeast Asia appears set to be a key battleground in the struggle for influence between the 21st century’s two leading powers, the United States and China. Furthermore, the country with the greatest potential to one day become a third leading global power, India, could also play a major role in Southeast Asia’s political and economic future, further enhancing the region’s role as the center of the struggle for power and influence between this century’s leading powers. In fact, Southeast Asia may find itself playing a role similar to that of Europe during the Cold War. That is, Southeast Asia could find itself as a key center of the global economy, but one that it squeezed between two great powers.
For Europe, this led to greater economic and political integration as that region’s leading powers found themselves powerless on their own when confronted with the might of the United States or the Soviet Union. Likewise, Southeast Asian countries might find themselves forced to take a similar path in order to avoid being dominated by the larger powers around them. Regardless, there is no doubt that many of the most important flashpoints in the 21st century are found in Southeast Asia and this will focus more of the world’s attention on this vital region for the foreseeable future.