Donald Trump and the World
As Donald Trump prepares to be sworn in as the 45th president of the United States later this week, the world is waiting with a good deal of apprehension as to how the new leader of the world’s most powerful country will transform his country’s relations with the international community. In fact, it can be argued that there is more uncertainty surrounding the foreign policy of the most powerful actor on the world stage than at any time in modern history. This is due in no small part to the fact that the incoming president has focused most of his attention on internal issues, such as the economy and immigration, and what he has said with regards to foreign policy has often been contradictory. Nevertheless, President Trump will find that this is not the 1920s and that the US plays such a critical role in all areas of the world that he will be forced to deal with the wider world, whether he wants to or not. What is certain is that the first weeks and months of the Trump Administration will be interesting as the world learns more about the new direction of the United States under its often erratic new leader.
Asia-Pacific: No region of the world has a more important relationship with the United States in the 21st century than Asia. Not only will Asia be the source of much of the growth for the global economy in this century, but it is also the home of the primary rivals to the US’ position as the world’s most powerful country, most notably China. In fact, the world is watching nervously to see if President Trump continues to take a hard line towards Chinese trade policy and its efforts to become the dominant power in East Asia. With so many flashpoints that involve both the US and China (the South China Sea, North Korea, trade policy, etc.), the new administration in the US will likely find itself at odds with China in the near future, setting the stage for a potential showdown between the world’s two leading powers. Likewise, India and Southeast Asia will be watching closely to see if the recent efforts by the United States to improve relations will be maintained by the Trump Administration, or if they will fall victim to increasing US isolationism. The same is true of long-time US allies in the region, such as Japan, Australia and South Korea, each of which now questions the US’ willingness to offset China’s rising assertiveness in this crucial region.
Europe: Another region concerned about the direction of the United States under President Trump is Europe. On one hand, Europe is in the midst of a wave of support for populist political movements and the traditionally-dominant centrist political parties of the region are fearful that the election of Donald Trump could boost support for right-wing and left-wing populist movements across Europe. With so many important elections taking place across Europe this year, there are concerns that isolationism and populism will be major vote-winners in many countries in the coming months. Another fear in Europe is that the Trump Administration will abandon Europe at a time when the region is facing the threats of a resurgent Russia in the east and conflict and unrest in the south. Moreover, the strangely close relationship between the new US president and Russian President Vladimir Putin has raised alarms in those areas of Europe where Russian influence was once much greater, and where Russia maintains a high level of interest. With Europe divided and with the US turning inward, it remains to be seen if Europe will be able to deal with the mounting threats to the region’s security and stability.
Latin America: As the most immediate neighbor of the United States, Latin America is watching anxiously to see what the new US administration’s policies will be regarding issues such as trade and immigration. So far, President Trump’s focus on Latin America has been primarily on just two countries, Mexico and Cuba. It is highly likely that relations between the US and Mexico will be severely strained in the coming months as President Trump pushes to increase US border security and to renegotiate the NAFTA free trade deal, while threatening companies that invest in Mexico. Likewise, the recent rapprochement between the United States and Cuba could be jeopardized by an increasingly hard line position taken by the new administration towards that country. As for South America, President Trump has said very little with regards to this region, but it is likely that the goodwill towards the US that President Obama generated in that region will dissipate, particularly among the region’s most left-leaning countries.
The Middle East and Africa: Finally, the region that has bedeviled the United States in recent decades, the Middle East, will be a key focus of the US’ foreign policy under the new administration. In recent months, there have been competing narratives from the new US president with regards to this region. On one hand, the president’s call for a turn inward should result in the United States playing a lesser role in a region that is so remote from the US. On the other hand, President Trump has made some relatively clear policy statements concerning the Middle East, including an increase in efforts to destroy the Islamic State and a desire to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. In addition, it appears that he will increase the United States’ backing for Israel’s position in the region. What appears certain is that, with four civil wars and a great deal of unrest across the region, it will be difficult for the US to completely abandon its role in the Middle East over the next four years. In fact, as it has been for the past few US presidents, it is the quagmire that is the modern Middle East that will be the focus of much of President Trump’s foreign policy in the early stages of his presidency.