17 September 2014

The War Against the Islamic State

The leadership of the Islamic State militant group had to be aware that, as they dramatically expanded the territory under their control in Syria and Iraq, the international community would not stand by and allow such a radical group to establish a fully functioning jihadist state on that territory.  In particular, the United States could not allow the Islamic State to take control of Kurdish areas of northern Iraq, let alone the Iraqi capital Baghdad.  As a result, the US began supporting Iraqi and Kurdish armies through airstrikes on Islamic State targets, forcing the militants to retreat from some of their recently won territory.  Moreover, the US is now leading efforts to create a new international coalition to take the fight to the Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria for what promises to be a long, hard struggle.

After Islamic State militants seized control of the major Iraqi city of Mosul, they proceeded to make major gains in northern and central Iraq and even seized control of the approaches to Baghdad.  Had the United States not intervened with airstrikes against the militants, it is likely that would have seized even more territory across Iraq and could have even launched attacks against Baghdad itself, resulting in widespread chaos across Iraq. Now, the US is expanding its airstrikes on Islamic State forces in northern and central Iraq and this has allowed Iraqi and Kurdish forces to regain the initiative in some areas of that country.

The Obama Administration in the US is aware that it will take ground forces to defeat the Islamic State militants in both Iraq and Syria, but there is little support in the US for sending US ground forces back to that region just three years after they withdrew from Iraq.  As a result, the US is making a major effort to construct an international coalition that will work together to destroy the Islamic State before it grows too powerful.  This coalition includes a large number of Middle Eastern and European countries, including many of the leading powers in the region such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia.  Moreover, rivals of the US such as Iran, Russia and China have no desire to see the Islamic State remain a viable threat to regional security, so it is not likely that the US-led coalition will face any significant opposition from outside of Iraq and Syria.

Clearly, it will be the ability to create a sizeable ground force that will determine how successful this coalition is in combatting the Islamic State.  Most likely, it will be Iraqi, Kurdish and moderate Syrian rebels that are called on to carry out most of the ground operations against the militants.  However, these groups have struggled in their clashes with the Islamic State thus far, highlighting the need for US and coalition support in terms of weapons, training and special forces on the ground.  In Iraq, it is hard to see the Islamic State being able to withstand the might of this coalition for an extended period of time.  However, Syria could prove another matter, given the fact that the civil war in that country continues to wage and that most coalition members are loathe to work with the Syrian government or with many of the other rebel groups operating in that country.  As such, it appears that the battle against the Islamic State could last for a long time.