20 March 2017

Why Germany Cannot Lead the West

Since the Second World War, the United States has been the undisputed leader of the group of mostly advanced North American and European countries collectively known as “The West”.  While some European leaders had dreamt of a united Europe that might one day have the power to counterbalance the domination of the United States, these dreams were largely forgotten amid deep political divisions within Europe as well as that region’s relative economic and demographic decline. 

Now, the election of Donald Trump as the president of the United States has moved the US towards an isolationist position not seen in that country since the 1930s, a development that could leave the West without a leader.  This has led some people to begin to refer to Germany and its leader, Chancellor Angela Merkel, as the new leaders of the West.  However, it is clear that Germany has neither the power, nor the desire, to lead the West while the US remains inward-looking.  In fact, without US leadership, the future unity of the West is in serious doubt.

The United States has been the world’s leading economic power since the late 19th century, and its dominant military power since the Second World War.  On the military side, the US’ control of the West’s military activities through NATO has allowed the European and North Atlantic regions to enjoy their most prolonged period of peace in their entire history, as no outside rival has the capability of challenging a US-led alliance in these regions.  Likewise, US economic leadership of the West has been underpinned by close economic, trade and investment ties between North America and Europe, the world’s two leading developed economic regions. 

Unfortunately, rising protectionism in the United States, as well as in many of Europe’s leading powers, is threatening to undermine the crucial security and economic ties between the US and Europe that have allowed the West to remain the center of the world economy and the leading military alliance in the world.  For example, a more isolationist US will weaken the West’s influence in many volatile regions around the world, including the Middle East and Africa.  Moreover, Europe will find itself exposed to many more threats from outside of its borders should the West splinter, while Europe will lose nearly all of its capabilities to project power further abroad should its lose its ties to the US. 

In the face of the threat of US isolationism under the Trump Administration, some Western countries have turned to Germany to pick up the baton from the US and take the lead in maintaining the West’s economic, political and security interests around the world.  However, German leaders, most notably Chancellor Merkel, have made it clear that they are not seeking to assume the leadership of the West.  Even if they wanted to do so, modern Germany’s power is quite insufficient to lead the large group of countries that comprise the West. 

In no area does Germany exercise greater power than on the economic front, but with a total economic output that is just 18% of that of the United States, and with a dependency on export markets for its growth, Germany’s economic influence is largely limited to Europe.  Furthermore, many of its European Union partners have derided Germany’s economic leadership of the EU in recent years and have blamed Germany for much of the region’s economic woes.  Politically, Germany has been quite timid since its defeat in the Second World War and even as the impact of that war fades, Germany has refused to play a greater political role outside of its immediate neighborhood, often ceding the political initiative to weaker neighbors.  In addition, Germany’s military capabilities are extremely limited, leaving the country with little hard power outside of the economic sphere.  In fact, many critics have accused successive German governments of attempting to turn their country into a larger version of Switzerland.

The future of the collective group of countries known as the West will be determined by whether of not the United States’ turn towards isolationism is a temporary development or a long-term trend.  Clearly, without the hard power of the US, the West will be irreversibly weakened and increasingly divided.  Germany is simply in no position to take the leadership of the West and to maintain it as the United States has done for the past seven decades.  Without significant political or military power, and with an economy dependent upon exports, Germany cannot lead the West on a global basis. 

What Germany and its leaders can do, however, is to try and ensure that the US remains committed to the future unity of the West by reminding it of the benefits that the US derives from the unity of North America and Europe.  Should the West collapse, the outlook for global security and stability will dramatically worsen, while the future of the global economy will be in serious doubt.  One need only look at the last time that the United States turned isolationist in the 1920s and 1930s to appreciate the scale of the threat that a collapse of the West holds for the rest of the world.  While Germany cannot lead the West, it can greatly influence its future.