Four Potential Conflicts in 2017
We are three months into 2017 and the major conflicts that have been raging in recent years (Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Afghanistan and others) show no signs of abating. Most of these conflicts can be found in the arc of instability that stretches from West Africa in the west to Central Asia in the east. In Africa, conflicts of varying intensities are raging in more than a dozen countries. In the Middle East, full-scale civil wars continue to rage in a number of countries, while insurgencies and sectarian rivalries are destabilizing a number of other countries in that region. In Central Asia, Afghanistan continues to be plagued by violence and unrest, while Pakistan is beset by radical militant groups that are active in many areas of that country.
Outside of the arc of instability, political tensions are on the rise in many strategic areas of the world, highlighted by the growing tensions in Eastern Europe and the arms race underway in Asia. As tensions rise, a large number of potential armed conflicts can be identified as major threats to global security. Here are four new (or renewed) conflicts that could erupt this year, each of which would have a major impact on the stability of the region in which they are located.
North Korea: There is a long list of disputes in East Asia at the moment that are threatening the long-term stability of the world’s most-populous region. Of these disputes, the one that has the greatest potential to lead to an armed conflict in the near-future is North Korea. This is due to the fact that North Korea’s young leader Kim Jong-un appears to be a risk taker who is quite willing to challenge rivals such as South Korea, Japan or even the United States, while ignoring the wishes of erstwhile allies such as China. Evidence of this risk taking can be found in the recent spate of nuclear and missile tests that North Korea has undertaken, tests that have galvanized North Korea’s opponents, while angering China, its only benefactor.
These actions have led to a swift response from the Trump Administration in the United States, which has acted with surprising quickness to reassure South Korea of US protection, while threatening war against North Korea should these tests continue. Given the relative lack of evidence on how either Kim Jong-un or Donald Trump would react to the escalation of a crisis between the two countries, the potential for war on the Korean Peninsula is higher now than at any time in recent years.
Algeria: As one of the few countries in the Middle East and North Africa to have avoided the political impact of the Arab Spring, Algeria remains a powder keg that has the potential to explode in a fit of violence and conflict. This is due, in part, to the fact that long-time President Abdulaziz Bouteflika is old and frail and rarely seen in public, leaving a power vacuum in place in Algeria. Moreover, militant groups, some of which are a legacy of Algeria’s civil war in the 1990s and others which have emerged in recent years, operate in many of the mountainous and desert areas of the country and have continued to destabilize the areas in which they operate.
Should President Bouteflika relinquish his position, a power struggle could emerge between rival factions within the government, the armed forces and Algeria’s intelligence agencies, a struggle that would be exacerbated by the insurgencies underway in more remote areas of the country. This could lead to a situation such as the one that has led to the collapse of centralized authority in neighboring Libya. Should this occur, neighboring countries in North Africa and the Sahel would be severely destabilized, much as they were in the years following the overthrow of the Qadhafi regime in Libya.
The Kurds: The Kurdish ethnic group has experienced decades of conflict and unrest as the territory they call home is controlled by countries such as Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran, each of which has experienced its own major conflicts and unrest in recent decades. Now, as the balance of power shifts in the civil wars in Syria and Iraq, and as Turkey is undergoing a radical political transformation, the Kurds face the possibility that 2017 will be a most difficult year for their position in the Middle East. At present, the Kurds control more territory than ever, as they maintain control over much of northern Iraq as well as a large chunk of territory in northwestern Syria.
However, their position is threatened on many fronts. For example, the impending defeat of the Islamic State could turn the government forces of Syria and Iraq against the Kurds as they struggle for control of northern areas of both countries. Likewise, the Erdogan regime in Turkey is taking a harder line against the Kurds and is unlikely to tolerate large Kurdish enclaves along its southern border with both Syria and Iraq. Meanwhile, tensions within the Kurdish territories are on the rise as rival political factions battle for control of the Kurdish movement in all of the countries in which they are present. As such, the Kurds could soon face a number of external and internal challenges to their position in the region in the coming months.
Democratic Republic of Congo: 2017 is likely to prove to be a critical year for the country of Congo, a country whose stability is vital to the security of not only its 82 million inhabitants, but also to the nine countries that share a border with Congo. On one hand, the disparate nature of the country and the tenuous grip that Kinshasa has over more remote areas of the country means that stability in this country will always be elusive. However, 2017 is a particularly dangerous year due to the fact that President Joseph Kabila appears reluctant to step down from his position, despite international pressures (and a previous commitment) to do so. As the government is distracted by this power struggle, violence and unrest is once again threatening to destabilize many areas of the country, in particular, the highly volatile northeastern part of Congo, which is one of the world’s most unstable regions.
To understand the gravity of the situation, one need only look back to the last civil war in Congo that raged from 1998 to 2003 and claimed nearly 5.5 million lives and dragged seven other African countries into the war. Therefore, unless President Kabila can be persuaded to relinquish his office in the near future, the threat of war will loom large in this giant country.