Can Macron Revive France?
In just a few short years, Emmanuel Macron rose from near total obscurity to become the president-elect of France, and this once relative unknown will now be tasked with reviving a country that faces a multitude of challenges that have confounded his predecessors. In an election that was characterized by record levels of support for populist candidates on both the political right and left, Mr. Macron was the lone serious candidate that offered a vision of hope for French voters. During the campaign, Mr. Macron did a better job of identifying the reasons for France’s political and economic decline in recent decades than any of his rivals.
However, Mr. Macron will find that France is a very difficult country to reform, and he may find it difficult to enact any reforms if the country’s upcoming parliamentary elections result in a government that is opposed to his proposals, or if he backs down in the face of what is sure to be strong opposition to many of his proposed reforms. What is clear is that, without major reforms, particularly on the economic front, France’s decline will continue, something that will further boost support for far-right and far-left candidates and parties in future elections in France.
As is the case in France’s two-stage presidential election system, it is the first round of voting that usually proves to be the decisive stage. This year, nearly 50% of the vote in the first round went to populist candidates, led by Marine Le Pen on the right and Jean-Luc Melenchon on the left. Meanwhile, the presumptive favorite, the conservative Francois Fillon, could not overcome a series of corruption scandals, opening the door for the young centrist Emmanuel Macron to win the first round of voting with just 24% of the vote.
In the end, the policies of his opponent in the second round, Ms. Le Pen, proved to be too radical for a majority of French voters and she succumbed to a major defeat (66.1% to 33.9%) in the second round of voting. While it was clear that Ms. Le Pen stood little chance against a centrist candidate in a one-on-one election, her National Front will take comfort from the fact that she nearly doubled her father’s share of the vote when he qualified for the second round of voting in 2002’s presidential election. Moreover, should the new president fail to deliver on his promises for a French revival, populists like Ms. Le Pen or Mr. Melenchon will be well positioned to take advantage and will once again be a major force in 2022’s presidential election.
As he prepares to take office, President-elect Macron knows that he faces a tough challenging in reviving the French economy, while preventing the continued rise of populism in his country. Moreover, he faces the task of reversing the long-term decline of France’s relative economic and political power that has seen the country marginalized in many areas in which it was once highly influential. In terms of the economy, French GDP has grown by little more than 1% per year over the past 15 years (and by just 1.5% per year over the past 25 years), a worse performance than any mid- or large-sized developed economy outside of Italy and Japan. Moreover, France’s loss of competitiveness vis-à-vis most of its rival economies indicates that France’s economic woes will continue as the French economy becomes more and more dependent upon exports to generate growth.
Politically, President-elect Macron faces serious internal and external threats that will prove difficult to overcome. Internally, France faces the ongoing threat of terrorism as well as the growing internal divisions within France, particularly with regards to the country’s minorities. Externally, President-elect Macron has placed emphasis on his plans to restore France’s lost influence in Europe and further abroad, a task that will be challenging given France’s declining power vis-à-vis Germany in Europe, and the United States and China further abroad. In fact, the new president will soon find himself being forced to decide whether or not France will continue to strive for its former great power status or whether it will accept the fact that the “Grande Nation” is, in fact, a middle-sized power in the 21st century that faces strong international competition.
During the election campaign, Mr. Macron made it clear that he understands that major reforms need to be enacted in order to revive his country. However, talking about reforms and enacting them are two different things, and the president-elect will face a difficult task in pushing through the reforms he has proposed. First, he needs France’s upcoming parliamentary elections to result in a coalition of forces in the National Assembly that back his proposed reforms. Second, he will need to overcome what surely will be staunch opposition from France’s labor unions and other entrenched interests, opposition that has stifled nearly all previous attempts at reforming the French economy and the state.
Even if these reforms are eventually enacted, France will need to do much more to promote foreign investment and entrepreneurship, and to foster high-tech industries and services, in order to compete globally in the 21st century. If President-elect Macron is able to successfully push France in a new direction, it can succeed as a middle-sized developed economy in the modern world. If not, France’s long-term decline will continue and support for populist leaders on the right and left will continue to grow. This means that there is a lot on the shoulders of France’s new 39-year-old president.