New Countries are Coming
Recent developments suggest that the world is on the verge of a major transformation as separatist movements in nearly all corners of the world gain strength thanks to modern communication systems, growing global connectivity and a multitude of weakening central governments. Whether or not this transformation will evolve into a new round of state-making as was seen in the periods following the First World War or the end of European colonialism remains to be seen. Nevertheless, there is no doubt that the trend towards weaker central states and more powerful local and regional forces is growing.
In the 20th century, there were three upheavals that led to numerous new states being created. The first of these was in the first two decades of the 20th century, when the collapse of the Ottoman, Habsburg and Russian empires led to a plethora of new states being created in Central and Southeastern Europe. The second wave of births of new countries occurred as European empires in Asia, Africa and the Middle East collapsed, leading dozens of new countries being formed in a very short period of time between 1945 and 1965. Finally, the collapse of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia in the early 1990s led to these two states dissolving into what are now 22 independent countries.
In the 21st century, only three new countries have managed to be formed by breaking away from a larger state (East Timor, Montenegro and South Sudan). However, recent years have seen a surge in separatist movements in many areas of the world. This surge is being driven by advancements in modern communications, social media and the growing inter-connectivity of the world. Moreover, these changes have dramatically weakened the power of central governments around the world, particularly in countries with deep internal ethnic, religious or linguistic divisions. As such, it is far easier for separatist movements to organize themselves today and to increase their support among the local population and to challenge the authority of the central government.
The one region at present that is likely to see a surge in the creation of new states is the Middle East and North Africa. First, most countries in the region are the creations of European mapmakers who had little consideration for ethnic or religious divisions in the region. Second, the Arab Spring has unleashed a series of wars and uprisings that has transformed the region and led to many governments either losing power or emerging significantly weakened. Finally, the longer that the wars in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen continue, the greater the likelihood that new states emerge from the rubble. For example, each of these four countries could be split into two or three independent countries, each based around a religious or ethnic group. Status quo powers such as Turkey or Saudi Arabia are likely to move to prevent such a development, but might be powerless in the end to stop the dissolution of these failing states.
Sub-Saharan Africa is another region that faces the prospect of a number of new countries being formed, as old colonial-era borders are rendered meaningless. For example, many West African countries are divided along religious lines, with a Muslim north and a Christian south. This has led to much of the unrest in countries such as Nigeria and Cote d’Ivoire in recent years and could lead to an eventual division of these countries. Likewise, the arid Sahel region is one of the world’s most unstable areas, as central governments have little authority in the vast desert tracks to the north of this region, making these areas virtual states. Finally, Somalia is a country in name only, as it is actually divided into a number of states, one of which (Somaliland) may be the region’s next independent country.
Separatism is not just confined to unstable regions. For example, Scottish voters almost chose to secede from the United Kingdom and may yet do so at some point in the future. In fact, there are numerous separatist movements across Europe, some of which enjoy a great deal of popular support. In Spain, both Catalonia and the Basque area of that country have large segments of the population that desire independence. Moreover, a sizeable percentage of Belgium’s Flemish majority seeks to break away from the country’s Walloon minority. Across the Atlantic, Quebec nearly became an independent state in the 1990s and could yet again see a revival of the separatist movement that seeks to create an independent Quebec (which would likely then face a Cree separatist movement in northern Quebec). Altogether, dramatic changes in communications and connectively mean that central governments will find it harder to suppress separatist movements and this will lead to the number of countries around the world rising accordingly in the years ahead.