Japan at a Political Crossroads
Japan is in the midst of a period of remarkable political and economic change that will determine the future direction of the world’s third-largest economy and have a major impact on security through East Asia and the Pacific. On the domestic front, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has enacted major economic and political reforms since taking office for a second time in 2012. These include dramatic policy changes that are designed to bring an end to more than two decades of stagnation and deflation in Japan. Moreover, a series of political and security reforms being championed by the prime minister are aimed at normalizing Japan’s position in East Asia and allowing it to meet the challenge of a fast-rising China. Now, he will allow the public to judge these reforms in early national elections that he has called to take place in December 2014.
In enacting many of these reforms, Prime Minister Abe has sought to dramatically re-make Japan into an economic and political power better suited to compete internationally in the 21st century. On the economic front, Prime Minister Abe’s reforms have been designed to boost Japan’s export competitiveness while improving the long-term financial health of the Japanese government. Furthermore, these reforms have succeeded in bringing an end to more than two decades of deflation, as inflation rates have reached their highest level since the 1992 economic crisis in Japan. It is no wonder that, given the success thus far of these economic reforms (known popularly as Abenomics), Prime Minister Abe has called next month’s elections a referendum on his economic policies.
While the focus may be on the economy, Prime Minister Abe’s security and energy reforms will also be judged by Japanese voters next month. In terms of security policy, Prime Minister Abe has moved strongly to tear down the pacifist edifices established by Japan’s post-war constitution in order to better place the country in a position to deal with the security challenges of the 21st century. Of these challenges, none is greater than the rising power of China and recent disputes over a group of small islands in the East China Sea has brought this threat home to the Japanese public in recent years. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Abe’s efforts to restart Japan’s nuclear power plants in the wake of 2011’s Fukushima disaster is also a controversial issue in Japan and will play a role in next month’s elections.
While many Japanese voters oppose Prime Minister Abe’s defense and energy reforms, and are worried about the sharp downturn for the Japanese economy in the wake of April 2014’s increase in the country’s sales tax, there is little doubt Prime Minister Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party will easily win next month’s national elections. Rather, the question is whether or not the Liberal Democrats will win two-thirds of the seats in lower house of the Japanese parliament. Recent polls have shown that the prime minister and his party have lost some of their support and this may have cost the party its chance at winning a two-thirds majority, something that would have allowed the party to enact constitutional changes without the support of the political opposition. Nevertheless, the political opposition remains too divided to pose a serious threat to Prime Minister Abe’s grip on power, hence the prime minister’s eagerness to call for early elections.