France’s Immigration and Integration Challenge After Paris

Last week’s dramatic attacks in Paris that targeted the satirical Charlie Hebdo magazine offices and a Jewish supermarket were a stark reminder of the threat to European security that is being posed by radical elements within Europe’s immigrant and minority populations.  While such threats from radical groups exist everywhere in the world, a number of factors make this threat particularly acute in Europe, including the large increase in immigration from North Africa and the Middle East and the floundering European economy.  Moreover, the political and economic situation in Europe and around its periphery mean that this threat is likely to worsen in the years ahead, posing a major challenge to Europe’s security forces and potentially leading to major political changes in both France and Europe.

The attacks in Paris last week appear to have been carefully calculated to target two elements of French and Western society that are an anathema to radical Islamist groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, as well as to more conservative elements of France’s large Muslim minority.  The first element is free speech, a very important aspect of French and Western values that are vehemently defended by most Western countries.  As such, the attack on the provocative Charlie Hebdo magazine could hardly be described as a surprise, given the fact that the magazine had been attacked by Islamists in the past and was unafraid to poke fun at Islam (or any other religion).  The second element is the Jewish minority in France and the West that is viewed by radical Islamic groups as wielding disproportionate influence over Western policies towards North Africa and the Middle East (including the West’s support for Israel).  Such tensions have been in place for some time in France and have resulted in the increasing emigration of Jews from France to Israel in recent years, a trend that is likely to continue.

One can hardly blame the French security forces for this attack, as defending soft targets such as an office or a supermarket from determined small groups of militants is a very tall order.  Moreover, thousands of French citizens are, or have been, training with militants in Syria or Yemen, making them much more capable of carrying out such attacks on soft targets back in France.  On the other hand, other aspects regarding the motives for these attacks need to be addressed by the French government.  For example, France has struggled to integrate its large Muslim minority, most of who come from nearby North Africa, despite France’s ability to better integrate other minority groups.  Another key factor in the growing radicalization of France’s Muslim minority is the worsening economic situation in France.  First, France’s unemployment rate remains above 10%, while its youth unemployment rate is more than 25%.  Even worse, the unemployment for younger Muslims in France is certainly much higher still, and it is often Muslim women who more easily find work in France, while Muslim men struggle to find any permanent work.  This lack of employment opportunities for younger Muslim men in France is clearly another factor in the growing radicalization of some elements of the Muslim minority in France.

Unfortunately, the tremendous solidarity shown by millions of French people in recent days is unlikely to have any impact on the battle against terrorism in France.  First, the economic situation in France is not forecast to improve at any time in the near future as the government of President Francois Hollande has failed to make the necessary reforms needed to revive France’s struggling economy.  This will result in continued high-rates of long-term unemployment, particularly for younger workers (and even more so for younger minority workers).  On the political side, these attacks are certain to provide a boost for France’s far-right National Front and its leader Marine Le Pen.  This will give France’s struggling mainstream parties the option of either adopting strict new rules on security and immigration to steal the National Front’s thunder, or, face the prospect of a National Front surge in France’s next national elections in 2017, where some polls suggest that Ms. Le Pen could make major gains in that year’s presidential election.  Fortunately, these attacks give President Hollande the opportunity to now enact the economic and political reforms that are so desperately needed in France.  If he squanders this rare opportunity, the next few years in France could see a major upheaval as the economy flounders and internal tensions reach a boiling point.   To avoid such a scenario, the French government will need to stop ignoring the economic and political problems facing the country.