The Dangers of the World's New Failed States

The events of the past two decades highlight the threat to global security posed by failed states.  For example, failed states such as Afghanistan and Yemen proved to be excellent locations for militant groups to establish bases to train their militants and to prepare for attacks far beyond the borders of these countries.  However, not until the 9/11 attacks in the United States, which originated in Afghanistan, did the world fully take notice of the threat to global security that such failed states posed.  Worryingly, the number of failed states has risen in recent years, due largely to internal conflict and a breakdown of political order in many states.  Moreover, many of these newer failed states are found in strategically vital locations, making them even more dangerous to global security.

Until recent years, most modern failed states were found in peripheral locations, far from major population and economic centers.  While this allowed militant groups to operate with relative impunity in these states, their peripheral location was less than ideal for helping these groups to achieve their ambitious goals.  For example, Afghanistan and Somalia were excellent locations for allowing militant groups to establish bases for training relatively small groups of fighters, but were located far from these group’s primary recruiting grounds, preventing these groups from growing to a size that would threaten the overall security of their target countries.

Unfortunately, the geopolitical situation in the strategic arc that stretches from the Sahel in the West to the Hindu Kush in the East has deteriorated dramatically in recent years and this has produced a host of new failed states that are located in far more strategically valuable areas of the world.  In the West, Libya has descended into failed state status in recent years as the overthrow of long-time dictator Muammar Qaddafi has led to a myriad of rival groups battling for control of that country.  This has led to a surge in illegal immigration to Europe, an uncontrolled flow of weapons through the northern half of Africa and a collapse of order inside Libya.  In the center of this arc, Syria’s civil war has pushed that country into failed state status as well.  Not only has this led to a total collapse of order inside Syria, but it has reignited the sectarian conflicts in neighboring Iraq and Lebanon and has given rise to the Islamic State, the radical group that most threatens the security of the Middle East and the world at large today.  At the eastern end of the arc of instability, Afghanistan remains a failed state, with the central government controlling only a few areas of the country.  Moreover, Afghanistan’s instability is helping to contribute to the rise in instability in neighboring Pakistan, a country with twice the population of Germany that stands on the brink of becoming the world’s newest failed state.

These new failed states in North Africa, the eastern Mediterranean and in Central Asia pose a much greater threat to global security than their predecessors as failed states.  First, each of these states is in the midst of civil conflicts that have resulted in a wide range of well-armed groups battling for territory in the midst of very strategically located regions.  Second, these failed states have attracted much more radical transnational groups to their territory, with the Islamic State being the most notable, and dangerous, of these newer groups.  Third, these failed states’ more centralized locations, combined with the presence of transnational militants within their borders, has led to a flood of recruits from across the Middle East, Europe and Central Asia entering these countries, added to their internal unrest and created a major threat to the security of the home countries of these foreign militants.  As a result, the world is faced with a greater threat than ever before from the descent of countries into failed state status.  If these countries are not stabilized soon, they could lead to more states around their borders falling into failed states status as well, significantly worsening the outlook for global security.