Global Issues to Watch in November 2026
November 2026 will be an important month for the global economic and political outlook. The United States’ midterm elections will help shape the direction of US foreign and domestic policy, businesses will assess consumer demand heading into the holiday season, and major international meetings will test the prospects for cooperation on trade, investment and energy.
Meanwhile, conflict in the Middle East, uncertainty surrounding Ukraine and renewed inflation pressures will remain central considerations as organizations finalize their plans for 2027.
Here are some of the most important developments and issues to watch in November.
KEY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
GLOBAL GROWTH FACES AN UNEVEN OUTLOOK
The global economy continues to expand, but the outlook varies significantly across countries and industries. In its October World Economic Outlook, the IMF projected global economic growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, with energy-importing economies outside the technology supply chain facing particularly difficult conditions. However, third quarter growth results for many key economies were better than expected.
For businesses, the key question is whether investment in technology and infrastructure can sustain growth while higher operating costs constrain spending elsewhere.
What to Watch: November’s business surveys, industrial production figures and retail sales will help indicate whether economic momentum is strengthening or weakening heading into 2027.
ENERGY PRICES REMAIN A MAJOR INFLATION RISK
The Middle East conflict continues to expose businesses and consumers to significant energy-price uncertainty. Oil markets entered the final days of October reacting sharply to both renewed diplomatic efforts and threats to regional production and shipping.
In November 2026, sustained high energy costs could place additional pressure on transportation, manufacturing, agriculture and household purchasing power. A diplomatic breakthrough could provide relief, although the pace of any recovery in energy flows would also matter.
What to Watch: Physical shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on energy infrastructure, diesel availability and changes in shipping insurance costs.
CENTRAL BANKS FACE DIFFICULT CHOICES
The IMF expects global headline inflation to rise to 4.7% in 2026, before easing to 4.1% in 2027. This leaves policymakers facing a difficult balance between containing inflation and supporting economic activity.
November 2026’s inflation and employment figures will influence expectations for monetary policy heading into the new year. Many central banks will consider enacting new interest rate hikes in the coming weeks.
For organizations preparing budgets, borrowing costs should remain a scenario-planning variable rather than an assumed source of relief.
CHINA’S DOMESTIC DEMAND REMAINS CRITICAL
China’s economic outlook continues to depend on the balance between export performance and domestic spending. Recent figures have shown rising manufacturing costs alongside subdued household demand, highlighting the uneven nature of the economy’s momentum.
November 2026’s economic data releases will provide further evidence of whether consumer spending and private investment are responding to policy support. Stronger domestic demand would benefit international suppliers, while continued dependence on exports could intensify competition in overseas markets.
What to Watch: Retail sales, industrial production, property-sector activity and any additional measures aimed at supporting household confidence.
KEY POLITICAL & SECURITY DEVELOPMENTS
THE US MIDTERMS WILL SHAPE THE POLICY ENVIRONMENT
The United States holds its midterm congressional elections on the 3rd of November. The outcome will determine control of the US Congress and influence the Trump Administration’s ability to advance its domestic agenda over the following two years.
For businesses, the implications extend to taxation, federal spending, immigration, energy policy and regulation. Congressional control will also affect oversight and negotiations over future legislation.
The immediate economic impact may be limited, but the results will help define the range of policy outcomes organizations should consider in their 2027 plans.
THE MIDDLE EAST REMAINS A CENTRAL GLOBAL RISK
Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict involving Iran continue alongside threats to energy infrastructure and maritime trade. Recent developments illustrated how quickly hopes for negotiations can compete with renewed fears of escalation.
November 2026’s outlook will depend heavily on whether negotiations produce practical improvements in security and commercial shipping. Even without a broader escalation, persistent uncertainty could keep freight, insurance and energy costs elevated. Nevertheless, there are growing fears that the US will launch major new attacks on Iran in the coming weeks.
What to Watch: There is a growing belief in the Middle East that the United States is preparing to resume its attacks on Iran, something that will almost certainly provoke a wider conflagration across the region.
UKRAINE ENTERS ANOTHER DIFFICULT WINTER
The approach of winter will increase the importance of energy security, infrastructure protection and continued external support for Ukraine.
The United States’ diplomatic approach has also become an important source of uncertainty. Recent US efforts to encourage a settlement, alongside changes affecting Russian energy sanctions, have raised concerns in Ukraine and among European allies.
In November 2026, businesses should monitor both developments on the ground and changes in Western policy. Sanctions, energy flows, Black Sea shipping and European security spending remain important channels through which the war affects the wider economy.
APEC WILL TEST THE PROSPECTS FOR ECONOMIC COOPERATION
The APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting takes place in Shenzhen, China, on on the 18th and 19th of November, following the APEC CEO Summit one day earlier.
The meetings will provide an opportunity to assess the prospects for cooperation across the Asia-Pacific region. Trade restrictions, investment conditions, technology competition and supply-chain resilience will be important issues for businesses to follow.
What to Watch: Concrete policy announcements and any confirmed bilateral meetings that could affect relations between major economies.
MAJOR ELECTIONS TO WATCH IN NOVEMBER
UNITED STATES — 3RD OF NOVEMBER
American voters will elect the House of Representatives and approximately one-third of the Senate, alongside numerous state and local offices.
The central question is whether the president’s party retains control of both chambers of Congress. The result will influence the legislative agenda, fiscal negotiations and the political environment heading toward the 2028 presidential election.
NEW ZEALAND — 7TH OF NOVEMBER
Parliamentary elections will take place this month in New Zealand and promises to be a very close-run contest.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his right-wing coalition government will face a major challenge from the opposition Labour and Green parties. Recent polls showed that no single party is polling above 30% heading into this election.
SPAIN — 29TH OF NOVEMBER
Spain will hold an early general election on the 29th of November, with voters choosing members of the Congress of Deputies and Senate. The official campaign begins on the 13th of November.
The outcome will shape government formation and the direction of economic, fiscal and European policy. For businesses, the composition and durability of the next governing coalition will be important considerations.
OTHER ISSUES TO WATCH
COP31 AND THE ENERGY TRANSITION
The UN climate conference, COP31, takes place in Antalya, Türkiye, from the 9th to the 20th of November, with a World Leaders’ Summit scheduled for the 11th and 12th of November.
Businesses should watch for developments affecting climate finance, electricity investment and the implementation of national commitments. The practical question is how these discussions translate into investment opportunities, operating requirements and energy costs.
AI INVESTMENT AND INFRASTRUCTURE
Artificial intelligence remains an important potential source of investment and productivity growth. However, the IMF also identifies a reassessment of AI expectations as a downside risk to the global outlook.
November’s corporate updates should be assessed for evidence of both continued infrastructure spending and measurable commercial returns. Electricity availability, financing costs and the pace of adoption will help determine which industries and locations benefit most.
THE HOLIDAY CONSUMER
November 2026’s holiday shopping period will provide a useful test of household spending priorities.
Businesses should distinguish between higher sales values and stronger sales volumes, while watching discounting, financing offers and differences across income groups. For many firms, protecting margins while maintaining demand will be more important than headline revenue growth alone.
THE 2027 PLANNING CYCLE
Organizations finalizing their 2027 budgets should test their assumptions against several plausible outcomes.
These should include continued energy disruption, a gradual easing of geopolitical pressures, persistent inflation, changing trade restrictions and uneven returns from technology investment. Plans should identify the developments that would trigger changes in pricing, staffing, sourcing or capital spending.