Does Trump's Have a Foreign Policy?
To claim that the foreign policy of the United States is moving at a rapid pace these days would be a massive understatement. The war with Iran is just the latest in a series of foreign policy decisions that have upended global affairs over the past 14 months. Since President Donald Trump began his second term in office, the United States has:
- cut off much of its support for Ukraine in its war with Russia
- imposed tariffs on nearly all of the US’ trading partners
- launched attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities while that country was at war with Israel
- seized Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a lightning raid
- threatened to seize control of Greenland
- launched a major war against Iran that has spread throughout the Middle East
Needless to say, this is an incredibly active foreign policy for a president who has repeated the mantra “America First” since he entered politics.
Trying to understand President Trump’s foreign policy has been a challenge, even for the most seasoned veterans of the US’ foreign affairs. Currently, there are three schools of thought on how the Trump Administration is determining its foreign policy.
The Monroe Doctrine Claim: Some experts believe that President Trump favors a world that is divided into spheres of influence, with the United States dominating the Western Hemisphere. This follows the Monroe Doctrine that was established in 1823 in an effort to keep European powers out of the Western Hemisphere, and places the US as the arbiter of affairs throughout the Americas. This would explain some of the actions by the Trump Administration, such as its seizure of President Maduro, its threats to take control of Greenland and the Panama Canal, and its interference in several elections in the region in recent months. As for the rest of the world, some fear that this means allowing China to play a dominant role in Asia, while allowing Russia to dominate its near-abroad.
The Israeli/Arab Influence Claim: Other experts believe that the Trump Administration has aligned the United States’ foreign policy with the interests of Israel and several of the Arab monarchies, most notably Saudi Arabia. The president’s unequivocal support of Israel in its wars with its neighbors and with Iran seems to bolster this claim. Furthermore, many of President Trump’s most conservative Christian supporters are among the most vocal supporters of Israel in the US. At the same time, President Trump and his family have developed close ties with many of the wealthiest monarchies on the Arabian Peninsula, with questionable financial dealings having taken place in recent months that appear to have dramatically enriched the president’s family. Together, these ties have greatly influenced US foreign policy in the Middle East over the past year, including it’s the war with Iran.
The Distraction Claim: Finally, many analysts believe that President Trump is using a hyper-active foreign policy to distract voters in the US from all of his domestic problems. These problems include his very low standing in recent polls, the refusal of the Justice Department to release all of the Epstein Files, the opposition to the tactics used by ICE to enforce US immigration laws, and allegations of corruption against the president and those around him. Interestingly, before he entered the White House, President Trump regularly accused his predecessors of using just this tactic to distract from their domestic problems. However, the president’s foreign adventurism has so far failed to boost his poor poll numbers.
What is certain is that President Trump’s foreign policy is a reflection of the divisions and chaos within his administration, as well as a product of his own personal style of governance. Within the Trump Administration, there are many different groups that are competing for the president’s ear. Some favor a role in which the US continues to play a dominant and muscular role in global affairs. In contrast, many others want the US to pull back from its foreign commitments and focus on affairs closer to home. Other groups want the US to support likeminded politicians and movements in other countries. Finally, there are groups within the administration that favor close ties with Israel, closer ties with Russia, and a break with long-time allies such as Canada and Europe. Altogether, this competition for the president’s attention has added to the uncertainty surrounding US foreign policy in recent months.
While the United States has scored some immediate victories in recent months, this has had more to do with the unmatchable capabilities of the US’ armed forces and intelligence services than with the president’s foreign policy. Moreover, some of the policies enacted by the Trump Administration present long-term threats to the United States. For example, long-term alliances that the US has cultivated for decades are now at risk, something that could erode the US’ strategic position in many parts of the world. Moreover, a US that acts more unilaterally may find it more difficult to find allies and partners when they may be needed by some future challenge outside of our borders. What is likely is that the chaotic nature of foreign policy under President Trump will continue for the remainder of his term in office, especially if his domestic struggles continue and he increasingly becomes a lame-duck president as his time in power draws to a close.