The Electoral Map Ten Weeks Before the US Presidential Election

The fact that the Republican and Democratic party conventions took place many weeks earlier than in previous elections has made this year’s presidential election campaign in the United States seem as if it has been going on forever.  In fact, there are still ten weeks to go before voters in the US go to the polls to elect a new president, so this year’s unique campaign still has many twists and turns to go before the actual vote in November. 

Over the past month, national polls have consistently shown that the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, holds a four-to-eight percentage point leader over the Republican candidate, Donald Trump.  Meanwhile, these national polls have shown that third party candidates such as Gary Johnson (9%-10% support) and Jill Stein (2%-4% support) are likely to win a significant share of the vote in November.  While national polls are important, it should be remembered that the US presidential election is in fact a series of 51 separate elections and that it is the state-by-state polls that more accurately predict the outcome of the election. 

While there are 51 separate state (and District of Columbia) elections, in recent years only 10 to 12 of these state elections have played a decisive role in determining the outcomes of US presidential elections.  However, this year we are seeing polls show that a few traditionally Republican states are in play for Ms. Clinton, due largely to the low support levels for Mr. Trump.  These states include Georgia (where recent polls have Clinton up by 0.3%), Arizona (Trump +1.5%) and Missouri (Trump +3.0%).  For Trump to win in November, he absolutely has to win all three of these states. 

Meanwhile, polls taken in a host other traditional swing states have shown that Clinton has established a major lead over Trump to the point where Republicans are considering pulling resources from a number of these states.  Among the swing states in which Trump is trailing badly are Virginia (Clinton +13.0%), Colorado (Clinton +11.8%), Wisconsin (Clinton +9.4%), New Hampshire (Clinton +9.3) and Pennsylvania (Clinton +9.2%).  These were states that Republicans were confident they could win not too long ago.

While some swing states appear unlikely to be competitive this year, and while some new swing states may develop due to the unique nature of this year’s election, five traditional swing states appear likely to have competitive races in November.  For example, polls in what are typically the two most vital swing states in US presidential elections, Florida and Ohio, remain relatively close, with Clinton holding a 2.7% lead in Florida and a 4.8% lead in Ohio.  However, polls in both states were even just one month ago and the Trump campaign is sure to focus much of its attention on both states given Trump’s poor poll numbers elsewhere.  Meanwhile, three other states that are likely to remain competitive are Nevada (Clinton +2.3%), North Carolina (Clinton +1.7%) and Iowa (Clinton +1.5%).  Here too, the Trump campaign will have to pour more resources into each state, as he will need to win each of them if he is to pull off the upset in November.

Without a doubt, Donald Trump’s slump in the polls in recent weeks has dealt a serious blow to his chances at winning the White House.  For example, if Hillary Clinton were to lose five percentage points from her current level of support in each state in the US (and Donald Trump’s current support levels remained the same), she would still win 272 of the 538 votes in the Electoral College.  For Trump to win, first he will have to hold on to all of the traditionally Republican states were he is currently struggling to win, including Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Missouri.  Second, he will have to win all of the competitive swing states, including Florida, Ohio, Nevada and Iowa, a tall task indeed. 

Even if he were to manage to rebound in the polls and meet the two criteria above, he will still have to win at least one state in which he is currently well behind in the polls.  His best chances may rest in a state such as Michigan, where Clinton is not polling well, but remains well ahead of Trump due to his lack of support there.  In fact, it is highly unlikely that Trump will himself be able to garner much more support, given the fact that most US voters already have a strong opinion of him, one way of the other.  Instead, he must hope that his Democratic rival loses support so that enough voters turn away from her and opt for him (or a third party candidate) in enough swing states.  However, if he has another disastrous month such as the one he had in August, his slim chances at the presidency are likely to evaporate completely.