The Prospects for Peace in Ukraine

With heavy fighting between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian militants taking place across eastern Ukraine in recent weeks, there are fears that the war in Ukraine is about to intensify, just as peace talks between the rival factions are about to begin.  While some European leaders are optimistic that these peace talks can lead to a permanent settlement to the conflict in eastern Ukraine, others are taking the approach that the war in Ukraine is far from over.  With neither side in the conflict satisfied with the situation on the ground in eastern Ukraine, the prospects for a lasting peace are indeed grim.

In recent weeks, the fighting in eastern Ukraine has raged all along the front line between Ukrainian government forces and their pro-Russian militant opponents.  Fighting has been particularly fierce along three segments of the front line.  In the north, fighting has been waging around the strategic rail and road hub of Debaltseve, which is in the middle of a narrow salient controlled by Ukrainian government forces.  In the center, heavy fighting continues in and around the city of Donetsk, the largest city under the control of the pro-Russian militants.  Finally, in the south, pro-Russian militants have stepped up their efforts to advance on the key Black Sea port of Mariupol, the most important city located between Russia and Russian-controlled Crimea (which has no other territorial links to Russia).

Amid this heavy fighting, diplomatic efforts to find a solution to the conflict in Ukraine have been stepped up in recent weeks.  On one side, the United States government has threatened to provide arms to Ukrainian forces if Russia did not end its involvement in this conflict.  On the other side, European and regional leaders with ties to both Russia and Ukraine have been attempting to negotiate a peace deal between the warring sides.  This has led to this week’s peace talks in Belarus that are bringing together the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France in a bid to end the conflict.  It is likely that Germany and France will offer Russia incentives to bring the conflict to an end now that international sanctions on Russia have had such a major impact on that country’s economy.  However, they will likely warn Russia that, if a serious offer is rejected, the West will likely step up its support for the Ukrainian government in this conflict and enact more sanctions against Russia.

Many experts believe that the worsening economic situation in Russia will force President Vladimir Putin to agree to a peace deal that will end the conflict in eastern Ukraine, while providing for a great deal of autonomy for regions under the control of pro-Russian militants.  However, such a deal would cost President Putin support among nationalist elements in Russia, while allowing an increasingly pro-Western government to remain in power in Kiev.  Moreover, the pro-Russian militants that have been fighting for a separation from Ukraine are unlikely to welcome any deal that requires them to remain inside that country.  Meanwhile, Russia’s 2014 seizure of Crimea appears to be non-negotiable from Moscow’s viewpoint, but this will be difficult for Ukraine’s government to accept.  As such, while some form of ceasefire may be reached in the near-term, a long-term solution to the conflict in Ukraine appears to be a much more distant prospect.