A New Era in US-Cuban Relations

For more than 50 years, the United States maintained a near-total embargo on Cuba and political ties between the world’s leading power and the small island nation of ten million people were distant at their best and fraught with tension at their worst.  However, major changes are forthcoming now that the talks between the two long-time rivals that were mediated by Canada and the Vatican have led to a major shift in US policy towards Cuba.  On the political front, US President Barack Obama has the power to ensure that ties between the US and Cuba are fully restored.  However, in order to fully restore economic ties between the two countries, the US Congress will have to lift the long-standing embargo on Cuba, and here, President Obama will face a great deal of opposition.

A number of agreements were reached between President Obama and Cuban President Raul Castro during the 18 months of secret talks that took place between US and Cuban officials in Canada.  They included a swapping of prisoners held by each country, including the USAID worker Alan Gross who had been held by Cuba since 2009.  In addition, the two sides will move quickly to restore diplomatic relations and re-open their embassies in each other’s countries.  Meanwhile, the United States will ease a number of financial, export and travel restrictions placed on US individuals and businesses dealing with Cuba, providing a small boost to Cuba’s economy.

For Cuba, this restoration of ties with the United States brings the hope that the economic struggles of the past 25 years can finally come to an end.  During that period, Cuba lost its main economic benefactor when the Soviet Union collapsed and is now losing its most recent economic supporter as the economy of Venezuela is collapsing under falling oil prices and hyperinflation.  Without full travel and trade ties with the United States, Cuba’s economy has little opportunity to record the levels of growth needed to reduce poverty in that country.  While Cuba has done well in some areas (such as medicine) during the US embargo, most areas of the Cuban economy are extremely inefficient and antiquated.  Should the embargo be lifted, a surge in investment and tourism from the United States is likely and this would provide a much needed lifeline for the Cuban economy.

While President Obama has the power to change foreign policy towards Cuba, he cannot lift the US’ economic embargo.  Instead, this has to be done by the US Congress and here, there is much opposition to such a move.  First, many Republicans are opposed to lifting the embargo without major political changes in Cuba.  Second, many Cuban-Americans living in the swing state of Florida remain deeply opposed to any concessions to the Castro-led Cuban government, and their position in Florida gives them tremendous political leverage.  While overall public opinion in the United States favors improving ties with Cuba, this determined opposition in the US Congress could thwart President Obama’s bid to fully restore political and economic ties between these long-time adversaries.