The Threat of More Fighting in Ukraine

In recent weeks, tensions have been steadily increasing in Ukraine, threatening to lead to a new surge in the fighting between forces loyal to the Ukrainian government and the pro-Russian militias that control a large area of eastern Ukraine.  In fact, tensions have risen so far that the Ukrainian government has sent military reinforcements to many areas of eastern and southern Ukraine in the expectation that the rebels, with the backing of Russia, are preparing to launch a major offensive in those regions.  Moreover, the recent elections for local governments in the rebel-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine have led to an abandonment of the ceasefire between the two sides that had reduced the level of conflict in eastern Ukraine over the past two months.

A number of recent developments have resulted in a sharp deterioration in the prospects for peace in Ukraine.  First, a number of reports surfaced of a new round of large-scale shipments of Russian military equipment to pro-Russian militias in eastern Ukraine.  Second, political parties opposed to making major concessions to the rebels performed well in last month’s early parliamentary elections in Ukraine.  Finally, the rebels held their own elections last week for new governments in the territories that they control in eastern Ukraine.  This last development led to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko cancelling the partial autonomy for two eastern regions of Ukraine that he had granted as part of the ceasefire deal two months ago.

This latest deterioration in the political situation in Ukraine has led to a growing likelihood that the fighting in eastern Ukraine will resume in the near future.  Of course, there were a number of skirmishes along the front lines during the past two months, but both sides refrained from launching major military offensives against the other.  However, it is clear that the pro-Russian militias have been reinforced in recent weeks and are once again in a position to carry out new offensives.  The obvious targets for the rebels are the area to the east of the city of Donetsk, which is the largest city under rebel control, as well as the Black Sea port of Mariupol and the lands to its east that connect rebel-held areas of southern Ukraine to the Crimean Peninsula, which was annexed by Russia earlier this year.

As has been the case throughout this crisis, it is Russia that holds the key to the outcome of the crisis.  Russia’s goals are threefold.  First, it wants Ukraine to refrain from developing closer political and economic ties with the West, but is prepared to accept a neutral government in Kiev.  Second, Russia wants the areas of Ukraine where pro-Russian sentiment is at its strongest to have a great deal of autonomy, while retaining strong ties with Russia.  Finally, Russia wants a land bridge to the Crimean Peninsula and this could include an arrangement such as the one that Russia has with Lithuania in order to connect the Kaliningrad region with the rest of Russia.  With Ukraine’s military options remaining poor, and with the West unwilling to commit military support to Ukraine, it is unlikely that Russia will support any agreement that does not meet each of these demands.