Israel is in Danger of Being Overstretched
The fact that Israel launched an attack on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities was not a surprise given the long-standing enmity between the two countries and the growing fears that Iran was moving closer to being able to develop nuclear weapons. Moreover, Israel likely felt that this was an opportune time to strike, giving Iran’s current weakness and the backing that Israel has been receiving from the Trump Administration in the United States. Likewise, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, facing both the prospects of a collapsing government and major legal troubles, certainly viewed this as the right time to launch an attack on Iran in order to distract the Israel population from his personal troubles.
What has been surprising has been the scale of Israel’s attacks on Iran. While it was expected that Israel would eventually carry out attacks on Iran’s main nuclear facilities, the scale and length of these attacks has come as a surprise to many. Moreover, it appears that Israel is willing to continue to launch more attacks on targets across Iran, even as Iran has launched several counterattacks of its own on targets across Israel.
One aspect of the surprising nature of Israel’s attacks on Iran is the fact that Israel is already engaged in four other conflicts at the moment. Three of these conflicts are relatively small-scale at present (Israel’s attacks on militant groups in Syria, its continued attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon and its tit-for-tax battle with Houthi rebels in Yemen). However, the other conflict, the one in Gaza that has been going on for most of the past 20 months, has forced Israel to expend significant military resources and has claimed tens of thousands of lives. Few countries with a population smaller than that of Greece and an economy smaller than that of Sweden have managed to fight wars on five different fronts simultaneously and this serves as a stark reminder of Israel’s long-term security vulnerabilities.
What is Happening
For the moment, Israel appears to be much better prepared for a long-term and long-distance conflict than Iran. In fact, Iran is relatively ill-prepared for such a conflict, one of the likely reasons why Israel chose this time to attack. It is believed that Iran had around 2,000 missiles capable of striking targets in Israel at the start of this conflict, and many of these have already been used in the past few days. Moreover, Israel has already gained near-total control of the skies over Iran, leaving Iran highly-vulnerable to more Israeli air and missile attacks.
However, Israeli armed forces are also committed to fighting in other conflicts in the region, threatening to overstretch Israel’s military. The war in Gaza has gone badly for Israel’s armed forces and has proven to be a major drain on their resources. At the same time, Israeli armed forces have had to continue carrying out operations against perceived threats in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. While these groups may not be powerful on their own, the fact that Israel has had to conduct simultaneous military operations in so many areas threatened to wear down the country’s armed forces, even before the start of the conflict with Iran.
So far in its history, Israel has been fortunate in its choice of enemies as it has benefitted from having a set of weak and uncoordinated rivals. Most countries that Israel has gone to war with have had relatively weak armed forces, even when large sums were invested in their defense capabilities. Likewise, Israel’s rivals have struggled to coordinate their opposition to Israel. In fact, Israel has not faced a united Arab front since the 1970s and there is little prospect of that changing over the near-term.
Implications
Israel’s demographic and geographic limitations should have that country concerned about its long-term security. Demographically, it is vastly outnumbered by its potential rivals, a gap that is forecast to continue to widen in the years ahead. Moreover, Israel’s internal demographic trends suggest that the country will also grow more polarized in the coming years, threatening its ability to react to potential threats. Israel’s small land area also is a major risk, as Israel possesses very little strategic depth should it one day face a major land invasion.
While Israel’s economy and tech sector have performed exceptionally well in recent years, it also faces a future in which its economic and technological advantages over its potential rivals is greatly diminished. Already, some of Israel’s rivals in the region have been experiencing rapid economy growth, while also investing heavily in their tech sectors. This will enable these countries to increase the power and sophistication of their militaries in the coming years, eroding Israel’s advantage in this area. Should these potential rivals coordinate moves against Israel, they will likely have a massive advantage in terms of scale.
Summary
While Israel’s armed forces remain the most powerful in the region, the country faces a very uncertain future. Even if it emerges victorious from each of the conflicts in which it is now engaged, Israel will be faced with a future in which its security is severely compromised. Only by keeping its potential rivals weak and divided can Israel maintain a degree of security in the Middle East, and this is likely only possible with the backing of the United States. Should the US reduce its support for Israel, and should Israel’s rivals in the Middle East work together to confront it, the very future of Israel will be in severe jeopardy, no matter the outcome of its current wars.