Defeating the Islamic State

The latest series of atrocities carried out by the Islamic State (IS) militant group highlights the fact that, despite the US-led air campaign against the militants, it remains in control of a large section of Syria and Iraq.  Nevertheless, the position of the Islamic State has been weakened by the air campaign, even if it has not led to a significant reduction in the size of the territory controlled by the IS.  However, for the Islamic State to be completely defeated, ground forces will have to be found to destroy the militants on the ground and, so far, such forces have not materialized.  This may force the United States to once again commit large-scale ground forces to the Middle East, just a little more than three years since the end of US combat operations in Iraq.

Since the United States formed an international coalition to carry out an air campaign against the Islamic State militants in mid-2014, the IS’ territorial expansion has largely been brought to an end.  In mid-2014, the Islamic State militants made major gains across northern and central Iraq before US-led air power was able to support Iraqi and Kurdish forces in their largely successful efforts to halt the IS expansion.  Since then, this air campaign has focused on curbing the Islamic State’s ability to expand its territory in Iraq and on weakening its military and economic bases in Syria.  In both of these efforts, the air campaign has largely been successful, as the IS no longer has the capability of carrying out a large-scale military offensive and its sources of wealth have been severely compromised. 

While the air campaign has stunted the Islamic State’s offensive capabilities, it has done little to weaken the IS’ grip on the territory that it has controlled since the beginning of the air campaign.  This is due largely to the fact that the United States has been unable to find the ground forces needed to drive the Islamic State from its territory in Syria and Iraq.  In Iraq, Kurdish forces are not large enough to drive the IS from northern Iraq, while the Iraqi military has proven to be too divided and weak to inflict a major defeat on IS forces in central Iraq.  In Syria, the civil war has left a fragmented group of rebels to combat both Syrian government forces and the Islamic State militants.  As a result, a stalemate has ensued in Syria and forces on the ground there are not capable of gathering the necessary resources to drive the Islamic State out of that country. 

The United States and its allies now face a difficult decision.  On one hand, they can continue with the efforts to find and arm local ground forces among Syria’s disparate rebel groups, regional Kurdish militias and various Sunni tribes in western Iraq.  However, this option appears very unlikely to succeed over the near-term, unless the Islamic State’s grip on power in eastern Syria and western Iraq is weakened through increased military pressure and a collapse of that region’s economy.  On the other hand, the US can create and lead a coalition of countries that would provide conventional ground forces to invade IS-held territory.  This option is also likely to prove to be very difficult without a higher degree of support from regional powers, most notably Turkey, who’s long border with IS-held areas would be the ideal staging location for a ground offensive against the Islamic State.  Until such a force can be mounted, the Islamic State will continue to be able to recruit new members, while becoming even more extreme, and this poses a major threat, both to neighboring countries and to global security as a whole.