President Trump in His Favorite Region

President Trump Returns to His Favorite Region

United States President Donald Trump prepared for a three-country tour of the Middle East this week as he travelled to Saudi Arabia. He will also visit Qatar and the United Arab Emirates later in the week as he returns to the region that has embraced him more than any other. Therefore, it was no surprise that this would be his first major foreign tour in his second term in office. Meanwhile, this tour was already marred by controversy when the White House announced that the United States might receive a luxury jumbo jet as a gift from Qatar for use as an Air Force One presidential plane.

 

What is Happening

• Just like in his first term in office, United States President Donald Trump chose to make the Middle East his first destination for an official tour as US president. While there, he will meet with leaders from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Each of these rules a country in which President Trump has done business with in the past and each of the monarchies have made strong efforts to woo the US president.

• While there are many pressing security and diplomatic issues in the Middle East, many of which involve the United States, President Trump will not be focusing on any of these issues during his tour. Instead, President Trump is in the region to sign a series of trade and investment deals with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in the hope that these deals can offset some of the bad news involving the US economy in recent weeks.

• Given President Trump’s love of flattery, it is little surprise that he has a fondness for the monarchies of the Middle East, as they continuously compete with one another to bestow gifts and favors upon the US president. On one hand, most of these favors will be major investment deals by these countries in the United States, a cornerstone of the Trump Administration’s economic policies. On the other hand, some of these favors may seem like outright bribes, such as Qatar’s offer to give the United States the gift of a luxury jumbo jet to be used as the new Air Force One for President Trump.

 

Implications

President Trump’s tour of the Middle East is likely to achieve some economic benefits, but few diplomatic or security gains.

• On the economic front, the United States has already been the world’s leading recipient of foreign investment in recent years by a very wide margin, and this is unlikely to change under President Trump. Look for many major investment announcements in the coming days.

• In terms of diplomacy, the Trump Administration and most of the monarchies of the Middle East are far apart on a number of issues, most notably the conflicts that Israel is involved in at the moment. Therefore, it is no surprise that the Trump Administration has toned down its support for Israel ahead of this tour. Nevertheless, discussions on these issues will likely be avoided during this tour.

• Led by Saudi Arabia, the OPEC+ group of oil-producing countries is set to increase oil output in the coming months, something that is likely to further push down the price of oil. While President Trump will welcome the impact that lower energy prices will have on inflation in the United States, lower oil prices also means that boosting oil production in the US to even higher levels is unlikely due to the relatively-high cost of producing oil in the US.

 

Summary

While President Trump is viewed unfavorably in much of the world, he has developed close ties with the Middle East. Part of this is due to the fact that he appears drawn to monarchs who enjoy unfettered power and have fabulous wealth, much as the three that he will meet this week. At the same time, the monarchs and the governments of the Middle East have shown a unique ability to flatter the US president, something that has allowed them to enhance their ties with Washington, at least as long as President Trump is in the White House.