Israel's Government Falls

The firing of two of the Israeli government’s most powerful ministers by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has led to the collapse of Israel’s 18-month-old right-wing coalition government and has paved the way for new parliamentary elections to take place in early 2015.  This collapse was widely foreseen given the widening divisions within the party over economic policy and the government’s recent bill that declares that Israel is the nation-state of the Jewish people.  Now, Israeli voters are preparing to elect a new government that will take power at a time of very high domestic and international unrest that are threatening the very future of Israel itself.

This week’s firing of Finance Minister Yair Lapid and Justice Minister Tzipi Livni did not come as a shock, given Prime Minister Netanyahu’s criticism of both ministers in recent days.  Moreover, the government has been deeply divided over how to tackle Israel’s slowing economy, an issue that had deeply divided the prime minister and the finance minister.  In addition, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s courtship of more radical nationalist and religious leaders had alienated the prime minister from the more moderate members of his cabinet, including the two ministers fired this week.  The move to declare Israel as a fully Jewish state appears to have been the final straw for the more centrist members of the coalition government.

Looking ahead to the parliamentary elections that will take place sometime in early 2015, it is clear that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party is the favorite to win the most seats in the Knesset.  However, it is almost certain that, in order to form a coalition government, Likud will have to form an alliance with more radical nationalist and religious parties such as the far-right Jewish Home party led by the pro-Jewish-settler activist Naftali Bennett.  In fact, the recent trend that has seen more radical right-wing parties gain an ever-larger share of the seats in the Knesset is forecast to continue in next year’s elections, dragging Israeli politics ever more rightwards.  In contrast, centrist and left-wing political parties are forecast to once again see their share of the seats in the Knesset dwindle.

This continuing shift to the far-right in Israel is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, as the birth rate for ultra-religious Jews in Israel is far above that of the Israeli average.  Furthermore, the surge in immigrants from the former Soviet Union over the past three decades has dramatically transformed the Israeli electorate as most of these voters have proven to be very supportive of nationalist parties in Israel.  As Israel moves to the right, it is likely to see its relations with key allies such as the United States, Germany and Turkey become increasingly strained, potentially leaving Israel isolated in what is a very dangerous region.  At present, Israel is more than capable of protecting itself, given the strength of its armed forces.  However, demographics are destiny and Israel’s relative power vis-à-vis its neighbors is in decline.  Therefore, Israel needs to ensure that it maintains close ties with its leading allies, something that a far-right government in Israel might forget.