13 Predictions for the World in 2026
ISA (International Strategic Analysis) has been in the business of making predictions for the economy, politics, technology and society for more than 25 years.
Among the predictions that ISA made for 2025 were:
- Trump would act quickly to overhaul the US government.
- Immigration controls in the US, Europe and elsewhere would get much more severe.
- US allies would scramble to rearm.
- Global trade tensions would worsen dramatically.
- The US economy would overcome trade turmoil to continue to grow faster than most of its peers.
- Inflation would remain a concern in the US.
- AI would begin to have a major impact on the labor market.
- Demand for energy would soar, leading to energy shortages in many parts of the world.
- Birth rates would continue to plummet around the world.
As we prepare for 2026, we are concerned that the new year could be filled with political and economic turmoil, although there are also many reasons to remain optimistic that we can overcome our many challenges.
For our predictions in 2026, we again have broken them down into two categories (political and economic/technological).
As always, while these predictions cover a great deal of issues and geographies, there is much that will happen that is not covered here, and there are sure to be some surprises in store for us in 2026.
Political and Security Predictions for 2026
A Contentious Birthday Year: As the United States celebrates the 250thanniversary of its founding, political tensions inside the US will remain extremely high. At the same time, speculation will mount that President Donald Trump’s health and mental state are in decline. In what may be their last year in charge of all levels of government in the US, the Republicans may feel that 2026 is their last chance to enact even greater changes to politics and life in the United States, something that is sure to generate greater tensions in the coming year.
2026’s Mid-Term Elections: There is no doubt that President Trump and the Republican Party are deeply unpopular in the United States at the moment, as he and his party flounder in the polls. This gives centrist Democrats a great chance to win contested seats in November 2026’s mid-term elections. While the Senate may prove a bridge too far for the Democrats, the House of Representatives is increasingly likely to pass over to Democratic control in 2027.
Four Years of War in Ukraine: As the war between Russia and Ukraine enters 2026, little has changed. Russia has made some small territorial gains, albeit at a terrible cost. In 2026, Russia will maintain the pressure on Ukraine on land and in the skies, but will struggle to wear down Ukraine’s valiant defenses. This could finally lead to a deal that would end the war, especially as the Trump Administration pushes for a deal. Such a deal would likely cost Ukraine some of its territory, but it will insist upon ironclad security guarantees.
Conflict Risk Rises: The threat of conflict will continue to rise in many other parts of the world in the wake of a tumultuous 2025. In the Americas, the uncertain situation in Venezuela and the threat of US intervention in other parts of the region have significantly raised geopolitical risks in the region. Conflict risk will also remain high in many areas of Asia, while conflicts will continue to rage in many parts of Africa and the Middle East.
Ambitious China: China’s geopolitical ambitions will continue to grow in 2026, and with the Trump Administration’s geopolitical focus looking more like something from the 19th century rather than the 21st century, China will see this as a major opportunity. In the coming year, China could test US resolve through provocations against Taiwan or in the South China Sea. In fact, many US military leaders expect China to launch some sort of aggressive action in one of these flashpoints in the very near future.
Anti-Immigration Sentiment Spreads: While immigration numbers in North America and Europe fell in 2025, opposition to large-scale immigration will continue to grow in these regions and elsewhere. This is evident in the strong support for anti-immigration political leaders and parties in many parts of the world, and the adoption of more anti-immigration policies by more centrist political parties. However, this is also harming the economies of many countries, who are confronted with worsening labor shortages, caused in part by reduced immigration.
Economic, Business and Technological Predictions for 2026
The US Economy Grows at a Steadier Pace: The US economy is estimated to have expanded by a little more than 2% in 2025 and ISA's forecast for 2026’s growth is 2.1%. US economic growth is being driven in large part by the massive investment (nearly $400 billion) in artificial intelligence and its related infrastructure, most notably data centers and energy generation. Professional services and healthcare will also drive growth in the US in 2026. Look for manufacturing, which has been in the doldrums, to gain some momentum in the coming year as well, mainly on the high-tech end.
Three Bubbles Could Burst: There are three significant bubbles that could burst in 2026, and should any one (or more) of these three bubbles burst, it will be a much worse year for the US and global economies than is expected. The first bubble is AI, which has been responsible for so much growth in 2025. The second is crypto, which is increasingly looking like the Dutch tulip mania of the early 17th century. Finally, the debt bubble is one that will surely burst one day without major reforms, as government spending levels are simply unsustainable in a rapidly-aging world.
Slower Growth in Other Key Economies: Many of the world’s other leading economies will struggle to generate strong growth in 2026. China’s economic slowdown will accelerate due to a weakening domestic market that is bedeviled by debt and demographic decline. Europe’s economy has been moribund for much of the 21st century and this will not change in 2026. To find economies that are growing faster, businesses and investors will turn to India and Southeast Asia, which are gaining much of the manufacturing investment that is leaving China.
Trade Tensions Will Spread: If 2025 was all about the United States erecting trade barriers in the form of tariffs, 2026 will be the year that more countries adopt a similar protectionist stance. With China’s trade surplus surpassing $1 trillion in 2025, more countries in Europe, Latin America and Asia will move to protect their domestic industries that are being threatened by Chinese imports. This could turn what has been a trade dispute between the US and its trading partners into a global trade war.
Inflation Will Persist: Inflation rates in the United States are forecast to rise slightly in 2026 as the cost of tariffs is passed on from businesses to consumers. Moreover, cost-of-living-related inflation will continue to rise, costing the Trump Administration more of its support. Outside of the US, inflation rates are forecast to moderate further in 2026, while China will continue to grapple with the serious threat of deflation, something that can be as harmful as inflation to an economy.
Technology Will Transform the Workforce: Artificial intelligence (AI), automation and other technologies will begin to have a much larger impact on the workforce in 2026. For example, many entry-level white-collar jobs will begin to be replaced in large numbers by AI. In fact, many major companies will make large-scale cuts to sections of their workforce in 2026 which will dwarf those that have occurred in 2025. For employees and job seekers, there will be a scramble to adjust to this new technology-driven labor market.
All Eyes on Productivity: As the working-age population stagnates or declines in most major economies, and as trade and investment growth levels remain subdued, the only way to achieve higher rates of economic growth in the future will be through higher rates of productivity growth. As such, productivity data will be closely monitored in 2026 to see if our recent technological breakthroughs can boost productivity growth rates in the coming years. Without higher levels of productivity, economic growth will certainly decline.
2026 will be another crucial year for the world and the well-being of its nearly 8.3 billion inhabitants. While there is a great deal of trepidation entering 2026 (with good reason), there are also many reasons to hope that this can be a year in which we reduce the level of political and economic risk in the world. Hopefully our political and business leaders will take steps needed to reduce these risks and to work together to tackle the challenges we will inevitably face in 2026, and to take advantage of the opportunities that the new year will bring.