ISA Ukraine Conflict Update - 11th of April 2022

Daily Summary

Russia continued to shift the bulk of its armed forces to the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine in preparation for what is expected to be a large-scale invasion of the areas of eastern Ukraine still controlled by Kyiv. This process has proven to be difficult, as many of the Russian units being sent to eastern Ukraine have suffered severe losses elsewhere along the front since the beginning of the invasion.

In the southeast, Russian forces were able to split the Ukrainian defenders of the port city of Mariupol in two, with one group defending the city’s main port and the other defending an area around the Azovstal Steel Plant in the eastern part of the city. This suggests that the Russians are finally nearing their objective of seizing all of Mariupol, although at great cost to themselves and more so, to the civilian population of that city.

While nearly all of the fighting in this conflict has taken place on Ukrainian soil, Russian regions adjacent to Ukraine have been put on high alert due to possible Ukrainian attacks in those areas. In particular, those areas near to Ukraine’s northeastern border with Russia which have recently been retaken by Ukraine’s military have stepped up their defensive measures. The only major attack that is suspected to have been carried out by Ukraine’s armed forces on Russian territory so far was an attack on a fuel depot in the city of Belgorod earlier this month.

Trends to Watch

Little Hope for Peace: Efforts by European, Turkish and other leaders to bring an end to the conflict in Ukraine have utterly failed, as Russia is now committed, at the very least, to win control of large parts of eastern and southern Ukraine, despite much heavier losses than it had expected.

Another Battle for Kherson: While Russian forces are gathering in the east of Ukraine, Ukrainian forces have made some progress in their drive to liberate the city of Kherson in southwestern Ukraine from the Russians. This is the largest Ukrainian city so far captured by Russia in this conflict.