A Look Back at 2020

• The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic

• The Worst Recession in Decades

• The US Presidential Election

• China's Growing Assertiveness

The Impact of Covid-19 in 2021

• The Continuing Spread of the Virus

• The Outlook for Vaccine Distribution

• The Outlook for Further Lockdown Measures

• Timing for a Return to Normality

The Economic Outlook for 2021

• The Economic Outlook for All Major Economies

• The Threat of an Uneven Recovery

• The Outlook for International Trade

• The Main Economic Risks of 2021

Geopolitics in 2021

• The Leading Geopolitical Risks of 2021

• The Biden Administration's Foreign Policy

• The Outlook for 2021's Most Important Elections

• The Impact of Geopolitics on the Global Economy

Key Issues to Watch in 2021

• The Threat of a Longer Economic Downturn

• Weaker Economies Face a Long-Term Struggle

• The US-China Relationship

• The Impact of the Pandemic

Long-Term Trends to Watch

• Demographic changes

• Rising protectionism and nationalism

• Sluggish productivity growth

• The impact of environmental changes

Economic Highlights

• The global economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic will be highly uneven, with some economies struggling to return to pre-pandemic levels of output.

• More competitive economies with a strong presence in high-tech and high-growth industries will return to growth much faster than other economies.

• Governments will struggle to cope with the huge deficits that resulted from the economic stimulus measures enacted during the pandemic.

• The center of global economic power will continue to shift towards the Asia-Pacific region, even as economic growth in China fails to return to earlier levels.

• Declining working-age populations, an uncertain outlook for trade and investment, and falling productivity growth rates will make it more difficult to generate long-term economic growth.

Geopolitical Highlights

• Despite the change in government in Washington, relations between the United States and many of its long-time allies will remain strained.

• China's growing assertiveness in Asia and further abroad will result in more countries working together to counter China's rising power.

• 2021 will be a relatively quiet year for elections (at least when compared to 2020), with the most consequential elections taking place in Japan, Iran and Germany.

• Right-wing and left-wing populism is likely to continue to gain support in many areas of the world, making it harder to form stable governments.

• Conflict risk will remain dangerously high in many parts of Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia and East Europe in the coming months.