A Look Back at the Previous Year

• The Continued Impact of the War in Ukraine

• Inflationary Pressures Ease in Many Regions, While Deflation Emerges in China

• The Uneven Performances of the World's Leading Economies

• The Rising Level of Global Geopolitical Uncertainty

The Impact of the War in Ukraine

• Russia's Failure to Win a Quick War

• The Outlook for Ukraine's Efforts to Win Back More Territory

• The Potential for Escalation by Russia

• The Continued Impact of the War on the Global Economy

The Economic Outlook for the Coming Year

• The Economic Outlook for All Major Economies

• The Potential for a Prolonged Global Downtown

• The Outlook for International Trade and Investment

• The Main Economic Risks for the Coming Year

Geopolitics in the Coming Year

• The Leading Geopolitical Risks of the Coming Year

• The Growing US-Chinese Rivalry

• The Outlook for the Coming Year's Most Important Elections

• The Impact of Geopolitics on the Global Economy

Key Issues to Watch in the Coming Year

• The Struggle for Natural Resources

• The Threat of Larger-Scale Geopolitical Disruptions

• The Outlook for International Trade and Investment

• Environmental Awareness and its Impact on the Global Economy

Long-Term Trends to Watch

• Demographic Changes

• Rising Protectionism and Nationalism

• Sluggish Productivity Growth

• The Impact of Environmental Changes

Economic Highlights

• The global economy will continue to record lower rates of growth over the near-term, before a slight acceleration in growth begins in the second half of 2024.

• Inflationary pressures will remain high in many parts of the world, but deflation will become a serious long-term threat to the Chinese economy.

• More competitive economies with a strong presence in high-tech and high-growth industries will withstand the current difficulties better than there less-competitive counterparts.

• Labor shortages will persist in some sectors of the economy, but unemployment will rise in other areas as the global workforce continues to undergo a dramatic transformation.

• Declining working-age populations, an uncertain outlook for trade and investment, and falling productivity growth rates will make it more difficult to generate long-term economic growth.

Geopolitical Highlights

• The growing rivalry between the United States and China will come to dominant many aspects of the global geopolitical climate.

• China's growing assertiveness in Asia and further abroad will result in more countries working together to counter China's rising power.

• The conflict in Ukraine will continue as neither Russia nor Ukraine has the capability of recording a total victory, leading to a prolonged stalemate.

• There will be a series of interesting elections taking place in 2024, including those in the United States, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh and South Africa.

• Political polarization and the fragmentation of politics will make it increasing difficult for stable governments to be formed and to remain in power in many parts of the world.